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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (2454)	1/6/2000 8:55:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

cheeky, this is a tech-gold rush, don't fool yourself into thinking this quality tech company stuff. The same kind of people that engineered bre-x, are now doing it in anything dot com, probably the same people. it's much more pervasive than most pie-eyed optimists believe. The stock market business has a dark underbelly, it's a ruthless business, just like casino gambling. The house is out to get your money. Press release: anything dot com made a strategic alliance with anywhere dot com. stock doubles, next day the stock losses all it's gains and the fools who bought the hype are left holding the bag. scams like this happen not just daily, but hourly -g- look at the bottom of this screen some poor bagholder bought yahoo for 500 bucks because some analysts who had a bunch of supply to get rid of, upped the target price to $600 bucks and the lemmings rushed in.

To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (2454)	1/6/2000 9:31:00 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Respond to of 3543

Hi Cheeky, you can't compare that to quality high tech companies I agree and disagree with this statement. I agree that junior mining companies and fledgling dot coms or tech stocks have very little in common regarding their respective business models and stuff like that. But the common factor that these two examples do share is irrational investor exuberance (where did I hear that term before?) regarding any given company's future earnings and subsequent valuations. Investors (and indeed professional analysts as well) tend to overestimate the positives (revenues and earnings) and underestimate the negatives (expenses and competition). Analysts tend to overestimate price targets (historically speaking) by around 10%. While that may seem surprising, given the recent history of so many tech stocks handily beating analysts' estimates, the answer lies in the hypothesis that analysts have been deliberately underestimating earnings (on selected house stocks) so that a positive earnings "surprise" will inevitably occur, and (as hoped for) catapult the price of the stock even higher. Ultimately, the stock will seek whatever price level is appropriate given its' industry/sector, its' earnings and revenues growth rates and other factors. But initially, the market in any new "thang" usually appears to be quite inefficient until the newness wears off and this new "thang" becomes commonly accepted. Such it was with the advent of railroads or radio or automobiles, and such it will be (eventually) with the internet stocks. Everything is new for awhile, until the next new "thang" comes along... KJC

To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (2454)	5/19/2000 9:54:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (2454) From: bobby beara Thursday, Jan 6, 2000 8:54 PM ET Reply # of 2858 cheeky, this is a tech-gold rush, don't fool yourself into thinking this quality tech company stuff. The same kind of people that engineered bre-x, are now doing it in anything dot com, probably the same people. it's much more pervasive than most pie-eyed optimists believe. The stock market business has a dark underbelly, it's a ruthless business, just like casino gambling. The house is out to get your money. Press release: anything dot com made a strategic alliance with anywhere dot com. stock doubles, next day the stock losses all it's gains and the fools who bought the hype are left holding the bag. scams like this happen not just daily, but hourly -g- look at the bottom of this screen some poor bagholder bought yahoo for 500 bucks because some analysts who had a bunch of supply to get rid of, upped the target price to $600 bucks and the lemmings rushed in.