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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Greater Fool who wrote (85775)	1/7/2000 12:43:00 PM
From: DRBES	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572777

re: "For AMD this will be a huge win, relatively speaking, and for Intel it will be a huge loss, again relatively speaking." Thank you for so eloquently verbalizing my least upper bound argument for AMD stock price of a year ($100+ to $200+) or two years ago. My greatest upper bound argument (much maligned and misrepresented by pauL) is for $300 to $600+. Not a likelihood, but it can happen in a three to five year time frame if all goes well for AMD and outeL continues uninterrupted in their present course. (Not very likely but possible) Regards, DARBES

To: Greater Fool who wrote (85775)	1/7/2000 1:20:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1572777

Greater and greater fool (tm P.ENGEL), Re:"I predict the final outcome of all this is that both Intel and AMD end up being just moderately successful companies. For AMD this will be a huge win, relatively speaking, and for Intel it will be a huge loss, again relatively speaking." I believe that you are DEAD wrong here. First for AMD: The company is extremely well positioned to take advantage of the semi-boom cycle for next 3-4 years due to its insane R&D investemnts of last few years. If we assume that the CPU prices will not crash then the company can average in the $150/CPU area starting Q3 2000. This will be for CPU's whose average loaded cost will be sub $75 - and 50% GPM is OUTSTANDING for any company. Its other major division FLASH memory is EXCEPTIONALLY well positioned being essentially SOLD OUT for next 2 years as the wireless and PDA market explodes. In 2 years we should be looking at a 10Bn company with ANNUAL profits of $500M-$1Bn/yr and $20Bn+ valuation or 5X growth from here. This does NOT QUALIFY as modestly successfull in my book. This is FABULOUSLY successfull if they pull it off and they already have the FABs in place to deliver this kind of growth. As far as Intel is concerned - approx 50% of their profits comes from the Xeon family 4M units/yr with >>$250 profits/chip. EVEN IF THEY BREAKEVEN ON LAPTOP CHIPS AND DESKTOP CHIPS AND ALL THEIR VC INVESTMENTS GO TO HELL they are positioned to dominate the very high end with MERCED. If you assume that server volumes will increase 2x - it is also plausible that profits/server chip will increase to $500/chip - average ASPS will be north of $1500/chip. THATS $4 BILLION dollars IN PROFITS per year from the server segment alone. IMHO both companies face significant execution risks but they ARE extremely well positioned relative to almost any other high tech area. A lot of folks forget that competition is GOOD. Both by beating each other SILLY in the MHZ race have pulled AWAY from competing solutions/products. The other x86 guys have been left in the dust as well as the RISC guys. I suggest to you that Both companies will not be moderately successfull but are likely to be HIGHLY successfull. regards, Kash