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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hagar who wrote (12371)	1/7/2000 2:18:00 PM
From: Clay Takaya	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Hagar, I do not know enough to say that you are wrong about LU's management seeing this long ago. They certainly knew that Q1 was going to be soft as their guidance was relatively low. On the conference call they said that the quarter was substantially back-end loaded and I think I remember that over 100,000 orders were processed in the last 3 weeks (someone correct me if this is wrong). It seems possible to me that they were hoping to be saved by a last minute deal. Clay

To: Hagar who wrote (12371)	1/7/2000 2:35:00 PM
From: Techplayer	Respond to of 21876

Hagar, One comment that I thought that I heard McGinn make this morning regarded expenses written down last quarter in advance of this one. Perhaps they are trying to get all of the "bad" news out at once. Just guessing on that one. Brian

To: Hagar who wrote (12371)	1/7/2000 2:40:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Respond to of 21876

Hagar, I agree with you that the explanations of inability to fill orders surprising. I'm not an an engineer, and don't understand the nuances of LU's product line. Is it possible that revenue expectations were generated based on product that failed to come to market? Charges have been made that LU sells "vaporware", and I'm wondering whether some of the expectations were based on non-existent product. I disagree with you on this statement: It's not just a "Top-Line" problem either, with revenue missing by less than 20% and earnings missing by 25% to 30%. LU's gross margin is about 48.6%. Do the math and you'll see that the numbers do make sense. TTFN, CTC