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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mani1 who wrote (85800)	1/7/2000 2:45:00 PM
From: Cirruslvr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1572786

Kumar thinks Q4 may have been close to 1B! New article about Kumar's projections - zdii.com But his earnings estimate is only for $0.05. He is predicting 920K Athlons at a $288 ASP. His breakeven for AMD must be VERY high, much higher than what AMD said to expect (850M). Does anyone have Kumar's report? I know some of the people who read this thread get analysts reports... According to the article, the report is titled - "Does Jerry have his mojo back?" Yeah baby, Yeah! ;)

To: Mani1 who wrote (85800)	1/7/2000 3:27:00 PM
From: Greater Fool	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572786

>>What exactly is a "commodity product"? The definition is not relevant. The trend and direction is. >>I bet you do not know the meaning. Who cares what you bet? >> Also did you think that 25% increase could be less than the increase in demand? Don't forget Intel is adding capacity as well. >>It is very clear that you do not know anything about Semi business and how it cycles. Jabs don't bolster your point in the slightest. >>All the equipment makers have backlog of months! Just listen to the likes of AMAT, NVLS, KLAC, ASML, LRCX ... Do you know how long it will take to finance and build a new fab? It takes you about 8 months just to get the equipment if you ordered it now. Fab utilization is near 100% for 0.25 and 0.18. There is no indication that the fab shortage will end anytime within the next 18 months. Existing fabs are being converted to flash production. Expect a significant upsurge in supply well before the end of the year. >>Also AMD has long supplier contracts with a lot of cell phone makers. The prices for these contracts are independent of the spot market prices. By and large not true, and also not relevant, as any long term contracts would be for prices well below current spot prices, as you suggest. >>I suggest you learn about the business. I'm taking others suggestions instead, and clicking ignore on you. Bye.