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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Howarth who wrote (50289)	1/10/2000 11:21:00 AM
From: John Graybill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

The developing flatline is interesting, and usually portends a sharp move up when it gives way. But I am getting a distinct sense, by looking at the graph as it builds, and some numerical evidence, by looking at the average shares per trade from time to time, that it's a distribution day. I noted on Friday that 73, and no higher, seemed to be the mandate, and we've gotten within a quarter-point of it twice today and immediately backed off. Today's plan seems to be to goose it just after the quarter hour (note that a corollary of this is occasionally driving it down into the top of the hour) and then back off to see if "small money" takes the bait. So far, it hasn't. The shares per trade numbers I'm seeing are all above 1000 for the intervals I've written down so far. (Every 100 trades or so I figure out the average for the period.) I would expect the average to be in the 600 range for dull periods like we're in now. My conclusion: if it's not a preponderance of "small money" interested in playing with MU at these levels, then the jig's up. If we don't break 73 today, then I'd say that the pre-expiration "collapse" and recovery scheme is in effect. (Indeed, the four-day collapse period would have to begin any day now to bottom by late this week or early next week.) As I said a few days ago, I've given up on a true collapse (low 50's and below, for example), but a pre-expiration fake-collapse into the low to mid 60's would not be surprising at all. So I'm looking for an excuse to abandon my calls at break-even and starting to load up on Jan 70 puts.