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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MythMan who wrote (1698)	1/7/2000 4:34:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

i was talking about what carried us to this most recent new high.. it was ge, hd, wmt, tech and internut. now there is NO leadership for the mania

To: MythMan who wrote (1698)	1/8/2000 4:38:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

ever seen a technician jump out a window? -g- Markets : The Coming Week The Coming Week: Thin Is In, but Bigger Is Better By Justin Lahart Associate Editor 1/7/00 8:27 PM ET Thin markets end badly. It's one of those axioms that seasoned Wall Streeters have pinned to their cuffs, carved on their desks and nailed to their doors. When the major indices rally on the back of just a handful of buoyant stocks, masking a general sickness among more run-of-the-mill issues, it's time to cut and run. Thin markets necessarily broaden. Occasionally that can happen by the leaders treading water while the rest of the market catches up. But, far more often, the market broadens after a sharp drop in the leaders -- the old saw is that when the generals run out too far ahead of the soldiers, the generals get cut down. And as the market stumbled into the 21st century, it looked like that was exactly what was happening. The tech stocks that had romped higher through the fourth quarter fell flat in the opening days of the first. The long-awaited correction had finally come. But it sure didn't last very long. Friday's rally, in the teeth of a profit warning from Lucent (LU:NYSE - news) and a robust jobs report, was surprising not just for its magnitude, but its breadth. On the New York Stock Exchange advancers more than doubled decliners, while on the Nasdaq Stock Market ups beat downs 5 to 3. That breadth expansion suggests to technicians that the rally may have not yet fully run its course. "I've been recently impressed by the market action," said Greg Nie, chief technical analyst at First Union Securities, who reckons that the drop in the last week may be only "an interruption in the rally that started in October." Nie would also like to see some follow-through, though, along with a little bit of help from the bond market -- and whether he gets them will depend on some not-so-technical factors in the coming week. Fourth-quarter earnings will start, and while the real torrent doesn't start until the week of Jan. 17, some big names will be reporting during the week starting Monday. Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq - news) is set to report on Tuesday and Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news) releases its numbers on Thursday. There's a good chance that General Electric (GE:NYSE - news) will report sometime during the week. And then there's the bond market, along with those worries about what the Federal Reserve will do when it meets Feb. 1 and 2. January retail sales come out Thursday morning along with the producer price index. The consumer price index -- the most important read on inflation -- comes out Friday morning. But perhaps this week's most important event will occur on Thursday evening, when Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan will give a speech at the New York Economic Club. Though his topic is ostensibly "Technology and the Economy," many suspect the Fed head will begin to prepare markets for a rate hike. "I think he's going to begin to condition the markets to expect a rate increase in February, and that it might not be the last one," said Mitchell Held, economist at Salomon Smith Barney. "Before long, we think rates are going to be in the 6.25% to 6.50% range." The fed funds target rate currently stands at 5.5%. That the Fed will raise rates at its next meeting is already a nearly foregone conclusion: In a recent Reuters poll, all of the 30 U.S. primary dealers said rates will be upped by 25 basis points. Lately, there's even a bit of chatter that the Fed may go up by 50 basis points in February, something that the monetarist on the Federal Open Market Committee, worried about burgeoning money supply, will likely be calling for. Miller Tabak chief bond market strategist Tony Crescenzi thinks that whether the Fed does go up by 50 will depend on how the inflation reports come in "combined with the vigor, or lack thereof, in stocks. If stocks come back quickly, that strengthens the case for a 50." Many economists worry that the recent strength of technology shares is keeping consumers overly enthused -- and propelling the economy at a faster-than-safe rate. "Maybe you need a negative wealth effect," mused Held. "We're going to see the equity market slow down a little bit in order to quiet the economy." So far, that hasn't happened -- despite three Fed tightenings last year. Nor is it apparent that a tightening in February will hurt stocks all that much -- particularly if we begin to hear more talk of how it might hike by a half-point and then it goes by only a quarter. It may be that Greenspan will eventually feel like he needs to take off the kid gloves with the stock market. But not just yet. "His job right now is to avoid doing anything that would spark sharp recoveries in the market," said Crescenzi. "Knowing him, though, and the fact that the markets are a little unstable now, he's not going to rock the boat. I don't think he'll want to kick it while it's down."