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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: peter51 who wrote (9559)	1/7/2000 9:14:00 PM
From: Grommit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78661

BKE has been on my watch list for awhile. I never pulled the trigger for a reason which may be irrational to some. I do not approve of the compensation plan. To rich. I think I get burned more frequently by greedy executives than by non greedy. plus I do not approve of the ethics. And perhaps fraught with a problem. If they improve profit over the preceding year they get a huge increase. But even decreases get a bonus. For example, a 20% decrease in pre bonus income earnes a 75% of base salary bonus. You grow income by 20%, you get 200%. Ugly. Excessive. Not for me. And might someone manipulate the numbers to maximize their income by fluctuating net income? 50% increase gets 360% of base salary. hmmmm. I see motivation to hold back or take a profit hit in year one and zoom profits in year 2. Regardless of the manipulation (pure speculation) I think it is excessive and will not buy it.

To: peter51 who wrote (9559)	1/7/2000 9:47:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78661

thanks peter51. I've seen BKE recommended by some value investors. I like that BHE has rising sales, very good roe, no debt, low pe. I'm always somewhat skeptical about investing in these fashion shops. When fashions change and they have markdowns and/or the stock drops, I start to feel they will never recover (I've owned a few that never did). And when business is good - and even with BKE where they can show a consistently good record - these companies still make me uncomfortable because I always suspect their misstep is coming. So unless some other people on this thread like it, I'll just pass on BKE. One stock in the fashion business I am monitoring is Bon-Ton Stores. Their numbers are not as good as Buckle's. Sales are about level for past few years. There's increasing debt, roe stinks --- gee maybe I SHOULD at least be monitoring and reevaluating BKE--g--- but p/book, psr look pretty good even considering the debt level. I notice insider buying here too. Interesting thing is that couple of insiders who sold at 7+ range are now buying again in 4-5 range. Stock, now at 4, is about 1/2 point away from as low as it's ever been (since '92) One stock in the fashion business I have taken a very small position in is Tommy Hilfiger (TOM). Here we have a rapidly and hugely growing company - and taking on debt, increasing the shares outstanding. And while growth will slow (I expect) and ROE is decreasing, so also are the price/sales and p/earnings. I am betting TOM @21 or so (close to its 3 year low), is too low for the expected sales and earnings going forward. JMO, and I've been wrong many, many times before. Paul Senior

To: peter51 who wrote (9559)	1/7/2000 10:05:00 PM
From: Steve168	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78661

Anyone here is a member of www.valueinvestorclub.com? Anyone heard anything good/bad about that site? Thanks,

To: peter51 who wrote (9559)	1/7/2000 10:17:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78661

ot: thanks also for info on valueinvestorsclub. They limit their members ideas to the members' best ideas. I always have a problem with that. I can't show any correlation between my best ideas and the stocks that I own that move up. I mean I'm always being surprised. Stocks that I once liked that just languish and I almost forget about-- suddenly move. Stocks where I believe I can't lose, evaporate. If I look over my portfolio and pick my five best ideas for '00, I'm fairly confident by year end this list would include at least one big loser, and it's very iffy that the big winner for me would be on the list. Which is why I have a problem also with managers who run a concentrated portfolio and who say, "well, we only will put our best ideas into the portfolio". I just do not believe they are able to have better stock performance in the subset consisting of "best idea" stocks compared to the more general "stocks we like" category. (Robert Gintel excepted)