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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (14481)	1/7/2000 7:30:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Cha2, << Do you disagree with any of Dr J's statements as I understand them? >> No. << Do I summarize his views accurately and/or do you agree with their substance? >> Yes & Yes I might add some opinions FWIW: 1XRTT & GPRS will probably roll out commercially at just about the same time with perhaps a slight edge to 1XRTT providing their are sufficient handsets. The implementation of GPRS here in the US will be much smaller than that of 1XRTT even given the relative disparity of the subscriber bases of GSM and CDMA here. However, the roll out of GPRS in Europe at more or less the same time will be huge by comparison and will involve some sexy new data applications. I have high confidence that GPRS will work well when commercially rolled out, but then again, I had high confidence that CDMA would work when Sprint PCS rolled it out in late 1996, from the time that WirelessCo made there somewhat risky technology choice in August 1995, and through all the start up problems in Hong Kong and Korea. I was right on that one. Time will tell if I am right on this one. Thinking ahead about HDR ... well, I'm still watching and listening in an attempt to figure out how it will be implemented, by whom, and for what purpose in the time frames the good Doctor is talking about. HDR is certainly a big potential chunk of Qualcomm's future. - Eric -

To: gdichaz who wrote (14481)	1/7/2000 7:56:00 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

Cha2, Whoops! Missed your PS. << China, or the "third leg" or other as yet unforeseen factors might cause you to add in the future >> I'm pretty comfortable with my 32.8% position at this moment (35.7% at 99 conclusion). I'm actually counting on some China. The thing that would most cause me to add (other that T reversing their EDGE decision) would be an improved relationship with ETSI. I think this might be a tad late as it relates to 2.5G. The major GSM operators appear fully committed to GPRS. The Vodaphone decision to build out GPRS candidly surprised me after their experience with a CDMA/GSM test implementation in Newbury and their acquisition of AT, and relationship with BAM. They were the most likely candidate, IMO, to do a CDMA overlay of an existing GSM network. I simply see NO interest in either the GSM or TDMA community in CDMA overlays. This disapoints me. Here in the US the major national GSM network being put in place by Hutchinson Wampoa (who operates CDMA networks), will most certainly remain 100% GSM. The GSM/TDMA alliance strengthens the position of both technologies in Latin America where TDMA has an edge on CDMA which has a big edge on GSM.