To: Vitalsigns who wrote (28411 ) 1/8/2000 12:02:00 AM From: Cameron Respond to of 62348
<<What about the possibility of the markets breaking the extreme in the Nanos envelop and causing the Nanos to catch up in a spring like manner? >> Well.... anything is possible!!! What they're saying now is solely based on what they've seen so far.... if something changes tomorrow they'll adapt their forecast and there is nothing to prevent them from upping the envelope. We've seen unexpected news rattle them in the past (ie. the US trade deficit numbers in Oct). But, I would argue that current trading behaviours, which is what the nanos use, fully discount all available info to date including market sentiment, economic and interest rate expectations, bond yields, etc. Is there anything "fundamentally different" between how people traded this week vs. last??? I would argue that there isn't.... they're the same people. So, unless there is unexpected new which is totally unanticipated... there shouldn't really be any major shifts. While some new behaviour patterns come along which would stump the nanos, I don't see any evidence of it yet... but who knows. I will say... if I'm going to be wrong I'd rather be wrong on the cautious side right now. With a standard error level of less than 1% in 3 years of back casts, I personally am not prepared to fully write off the nanos when they say "look out below"!!! I should also say, that while we are at new price levels, there is really no reason to believe that trading behaviour has changed radically from previous major tops or bottoms just because we're at a slightly higher level.... so while this may increase the risk of listening to the nanos somewhat, I don't honestly believe it does. <<There I go again, putting the Big Motsa Ball on the table <ggggg>>> Yes.....there you go again... and you know what happened the last time...not to mention Wednesday night... didn't you have two Big Motsa Balls before you challenged them the first time??? Geez... talk about slow learners!!! How many times did you have to touch a hot element on the stove when you were a kid before you figured out it would burn you??? - ROTFLMAO I can see I'm going to have to send the nanos out there again to have a good talk with you!!! In fact, they may be out there already... you just never know when there might be a nano lurking around!!!!;-)