To: DownSouth who wrote (2039 ) 1/8/2000 12:10:00 PM From: Cirruslvr Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10934
DS - RE: "Thanks for the report. Really appreciate it." No prob. But after I posted it, I realized I had only posted the summary. The rest is better. NTAP Management Meeting Highlights Yesterday, we met with management at both Network Appliance and Cache Flow to discuss general business trends and outlook for 2000 and beyond. Key highlights included an update on current business trends, overview of the company's caching business and the recent changes implemented; discussion of the NAS business, and overview of the competitive landscape. NAS Business Highlights Management noted that North American sales in November and December were “on fire” in what would typically be a softer growth quarter. There has been no Y2K slowdown effect at NTAP – in fact, seemingly the reverse has happened. In part, we believe that as corporate customers moved past Y2K and begin to focus on preparing themselves for the NetEconomy, storage, and the management and deployment of resources in this market have been an increasing priority. Caching also fits into this thesis as corporate customers seek to embrace the world of “clicks and mortar” in an effort to compete against the pure on-line companies which garnered an early lead. The market for caching appliances will correspondingly expand as customers increasingly seek to speed access to -- and delivery of -- content. In addition, after making significant investments in its direct sales hiring, we believe NTAP is reaping the benefits. Specifically, now in markets like New York, where there were just two reps a short time ago, there are now 8. With increased coverage and increased focus, sales reps have increased market penetration. This has also been a key factor in the company's recent growth acceleration. The company is currently having little difficulty attracting talent at this time – as a hot company in an emerging industry - sales reps and engineers are easily attracted. We believe it is possible that if current business trends hold, NTAP could potentially maintain or even accelerate its 90% Y/Y growth rate posted last quarter. In addition to the expanding market opportunity and increasing market enthusiasm for NAS – and storage and general – we believe the sales cycles are accelerating. In addition, we believe margin trends may be tracking above plan with the company's s/w and services mix in the quarter is holding surprisingly firm at approximately 14% following the initial introduction of Snap Mirror in volume last quarter. OEM relationships continue to track to plan but are not expected to materially increase as a % of the mix near-term – primarily because the core business continues to grow very rapidly. There has been only limited conflict/overlap and management clearly believes the Dell relationship is driving incremental sales. In fact, approximately 70% of the Dell filers sold were to dedicated NT-only accounts, a market that NTAP has historically not penetrated as much Future product introductions will mirror historical trends with expectations for next generation products in the Spring. Again, the primary changes will be a rolling of the price points and increased performance and the high-end. Capacity points will migrate from 3TB to 6TB in 2000. Component availability remains good and costs continue to decline. The competitive landscape remains relatively unchanged. One factor to keep an eye on will be EMC's new NAS offerings. Management views EMC's pending announcement of a NAS product using DG technology as a positive for the industry with EMC effectively endorsing the NAS market. Still, uncertainties exist about what the actual product will look like, how it will be priced and how competitive it will be. Nonetheless, we view the addressable market opportunity as significantly larger than either vendor could address independently and believe the market opportunity is expanding. Caching Highlights Following the company's July quarter results in which caching revenues declined sequentially, caching sales rebounded in the October quarter and remain on track. NTAP's decision to create a dedicated caching sales force has proved to be the right strategy and business momentum – while always “lumpy” as a result of the small relative size of the caching business and potential clustering of deals – is back on track. Last quarter this business increased 66% Q/Q to represent 7% of revenues. And while the % of mix could continue to fluctuate, we believe the new sales strategy has proved successful. Caching reps tend to have different backgrounds and skill sets than traditional filer reps and are frequently recruited out of the networking world. International sales remain the sweet spot for the company's caching sales and continue to represent approximately 80% of the mix. However, management expects the domestic sales opportunity to continue to accelerate over the next several years as customers' increasingly deploy caching solutions within enterprise accounts. Competitively, the caching market remains relatively unchanged with Inktomi, Novel, and CacheFlow continuing to battle for share. Companies like Akamai, with a caching services strategy, represent potential partners for NTAP. In fact, we believe NTAP appears to be on the short list with Akamai, and a deal could be announced between the two companies this year. Such a deal would further endorse the NTAP caching solution and likely open new doors for additional opportunities. There is still no formal benchmark established amongst the caching vendors. Caching implementations segment into s/w, h/w and combination solutions – with some running on traditional O/S platforms while others have proprietary software. The market remains relatively small for caching today but industry forecasts have recently increased the expected market for enterprise accounts to a climb to an estimated $3B by 2003. New Appliances on the Horizon? For NTAP, management believes that the current opportunities in the caching space are sufficient at this time. Specifically, the company intends to focus on the NAS and caching appliance markets for the foreseeable future. Investment Recommendation We believe the shares are poised to outperform once again in 2000. With an accelerating growth environment, strong competitive positioning and solid execution, we believe the company's 3 year growth rate will exceed our initial expectations of 50%. We are raising our 3 year growth assumptions to 60%. We are also correspondingly raising our price target to $105 from $93 per share based on 2.5X our 60% growth assumptions on the core NAS business and an additional $31 per share in value to the caching business valued as a % of revenues. NTAP remains one of our favorite names for 2000.