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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (37025)	1/8/2000 10:58:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, I was getting all these PM's early last week from the bulls telling me I was a fruitcake and Poly for buying KLIC ( while I was short the QQQ ). But KLIC was going up on heavy volume while the other semi-equipment companies were falling hard. I have been seeing massive accumulation here for a while.

To: HairBall who wrote (37025)	1/8/2000 12:14:00 PM
From: dclapp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, Years ago, when I started investing (a now quaint term, I know), I loved doing FA on companies. All the best investment books championed that idea, and whats-his-name in Omaha seemed to do well using that approach. Eventually, it occurred to me that I was looking for "good reasons" why a stock might go up (or down!) and that "good reasons" could also be found in the macro sense: the national and world economy, interest rates, all that. Then I noticed, and began to love the "good reasons" that could be found by augmenting FA with TA...using FA to target and TA to pick entry and exit points when position trading stocks. (I've never had the desire to day-trade; if I don't want a stock for a least a few weeks, I don't want it, period!). To make a long story at least somewhat shorter, I've been short QQQ a few weeks and am getting totally HAMMERED!!! ..and I'm sure that my position is much smaller than many bears (I'm a nouveau bear myself). And, obviously, the "index bears" got reamed on Friday. Still, the "reasons" to be short QQQ are many and obvious to most of the posters here, I'd guess. FA: silly obscene valuations. TA: silly nosebleed historic deviations from any and all "norms." None of that, though, seems to matter when the prevailing sentiment is "I know it's dangerous, but I can get out in time." That may be true, for nimble traders, but if you can't trade in the aftermarket, there's not much you can do about gap downs at the open. The best metaphor for this market is this: chugging down a fifth of booze, then joy-riding at 100 miles an hour on the freeway. And the moral seems to be this: The more often you can do that and not get killed, the more likely it is that you can KEEP ON doing it and survive...hey: prosper!! Common sense, however, points to a different conclusion. Robert Rubin, a few weeks back, when asked about the market, said that investors have two choices. They can either believe that the history of all markets throughout time matter. Or they can believe that it doesn't. I choose to believe that history matters. I was that dmp guy a few years back, buying hand over fist, when the "Blue Chip" net companies (jeez..) were going public. I was totally "wrong" then..as bulls always are at the bottom... And I'm taking a perverse joy at being totally "wrong" now...a lonely bear amid chest-thumping joy-riders. Time will tell, huh guys? Excuse the rambling and thanks for getting rid of that silly 20th century retro "analysis" label, LG. Nobody does that anymore. Me neither :-) regards, doug