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Technology Stocks : RAMBUS (Nasdaq: RMBS) - THE EAGLE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Orion who wrote (569)	1/8/2000 3:34:00 PM
From: jetcityrandy	Respond to of 2039

After Friday, I am thinking more in the "Ripple" range, instead of the champagne section of the wine department. Monday may be a much better day.

To: Orion who wrote (569)	1/8/2000 6:58:00 PM
From: richard surckla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2039

Orion, Found this on Yahoo by tech_future2000... I like to look at it as how dreams are made. I hope he's right! sq31415 and everyone else. MUST READ! by: tech_future2000 1/8/2000 2:11 pm EST Msg: 35144 of 35175 I can't find my total number for 2000 PC memory market. I know I have it here somewhere but I can't find it yet. Someone else may want to help. From memory I think it is $25 billion? 16% of that that is $4 billion. 1.5% of that is 60 million. Divide that by 24 million shares and you get $2.5/share. Of course you have to account for taxes but with royalties the majority of that goes straight to the bottom line. This also does not account that RMBS may get 16% of the memory market in units but a much larger % in DOLLARS. Remember that royalties are based on PRICE not UNITS. So here is another way to do it. 270 million chips/8 chips/RIMM = 33.75 million RIMMs. Let's say average price per RIMM to OEMs is $260/RIMM (I'm sure that is on the EXTREME LOW number, since 128Mb ECC PC133 SDRAM is going for that right now, but we'll use it for now anyway). 1.5% of $260 = $3.9/RIMM x 33.75 million RIMMs = $131.6 million in royalties / 24 million shares = $5.48/share Again you'll have to subtract the taxes from that amount but you can see that the upside for RAMBUS's price is PHENOMENAL. I welcome anyone else to correct my figures. At least we know that we have 270 million chips for 2000 and last time I looked, my RIMMs had 8 of those. So if I'm missing something, please let me know. Also my average price for a 128Mb ECC RIMM of $260 is EQUAL! to the price of a 128Mb PC133 ECC DIMM. The point is that prices could be even much better than this which will more than double my figures. I also think that because RMBS PCs are currently being sold on the high end and workstations, the majority of people would want to make the best use of their 2-3 RIMM slots (4 for 840 systems) will be buying either the 128Mb RIMMs or the 256Mb RIMMs, which means even more money for RMBS. Especially with Windows 2000 needing 128Mb. The end result of all these calculations is that the upside potential of RMBS is astronomical! And that with only 270 million chips. And the Sony P2 is not even here yet. And the other royalties that Rambus gets from support and controller chips (much higher royalties I might add - 5%) or even their consulting group, or their graphics cards, or HDTV systems, or telecommunications and networks etc... etc... The upside is clearly astronomical. That is why this is the next QCOM. It's going to be fun. Posted as a reply to: Msg 35141 by sg31415 View Replies to this Message