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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Madden who wrote (7742)	1/8/2000 2:32:00 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

>> We have yet to see the seasonal price drop that normally occurs at the end of the 4th calendar quarter. << Mark, Looking at the charts, DD stocks started to collapse around Jan 15, 1999. I don't know what the catalyst was. Whether the CC's or whether investors were looking at disk drive prices. I know that I asked you this before, but the answer may be important for trying to be ahead of the analysts. This is from a prev post of yours: Last year I did not collect near as much information as I do now. However, over 50% of the drives I followed dropped in price in mid-December. Prices stayed stable until the end of January when they started dropping again. I remember CEO statements on conference calls saying it was unusual for the demand to last through January. I want to be able to see if things are really different this time. 1- prices did not drop in December. 2- it is not the end of January yet. So we don't know about prices. However we can make an intelligent guess. - No inventory problem with drives. - No inventory glut of PC's - PC demand forecast to grow around 15% in the quarter. - No financial crises in Asia to suppress demand there - No weak Asian currencies to prompt dumping into US market. So my guess is also No price drop in disk drives in January. -Sarmad