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To: Eashoa' M'sheekha who wrote (46883)1/8/2000 1:56:00 PM
From: Follies  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116764
 
I like that ..

"a quirk of international finances"

what BS.

BTW has anyone computed what the value of gold should be based on how much currency is in circulation? (dollars)/ (oz in treasury)




To: Eashoa' M'sheekha who wrote (46883)1/8/2000 5:27:00 PM
From: Alex  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116764
 
Thanks T............

End of gloom for commodities? 6 Jan 2000




COUNTRY BRIEFING
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

In 1999 there was a significant difference between price trends in soft and industrial commodity markets. While most industrial commodity prices strengthened throughout 1999, soft commodity prices were on a sharp downward trend. This is not too surprising, as improving global conditions throughout 1999 lifted industrial prices, which are largely demand-driven, but left supply-driven soft commodity prices largely unchanged.

The EIU's soft commodity index (FFB) is estimated to have declined by a huge 18.4% in 1999, as overproduction in the face of lacklustre demand led to a sharp fall in prices across most soft commodity groups. In particular, the Brazilian devaluation in January 1999 led to a surge in exports of sugar, coffee and soybeans, sending prices to historical lows. The performance of industrial commodities in 1999 has been less uniform. Oil prices, for example, have increased almost threefold from below $10/b in early 1999 to over $27/b in late 1999. Base metal prices also rose steadily throughout 1999, albeit from historical lows, while fibre and rubber prices weakened. The overall effect of these diverging trends was a 4.9% decline in the EIU's industrial commodity price index (IRM) in 1999.

A similar dichotomy between soft and industrial commodities is forecast for 2000. Stronger economic growth, as growth in Asia recovers, will boost prospects for demand-driven commodities. Thus, the recovery in industrial raw material prices will gather pace in 2000, while soft commodity markets will continue to be plagued by oversupply. In general industrial commodity prices will rise by nearly 14% in 2000, led by a 22.7% rise in rubber prices. It is worth noting that the recovery in rubber prices will begin from a very low base. Other winners in 2000 include base metals, led by copper (17.4%), aluminium (15.4%) and nickel (11.2%), and fibres, where a turn around in the textile cycle will allow a price recovery to get underway. Although oil prices will on average be some 13% higher in 2000 than in 1999, prices will trend down throughout the year, from about $25/b in early 2000 to about $16-18/b in the second half of the year, as OPEC production is stepped up.

In contrast, soft commodity markets will remain depressed in 2000, as production again exceeds consumption in the beverage, oilseed and sugar markets, while high stocks allow only a modest recovery in grain prices. However, the decline in soft commodity prices will be small, at about 2.3%, compared to the sharp declines in 1998 and 1999. The main losers in 2000 can be found within the beverage (cocoa, coffee and tea) market, where rapidly expanding coffee output will dwarf consumption and tea production will resume its climb to new highs. Nevertheless, sugar prices will buck the trend in other soft commodity markets, recovering by some 11% in 2000. Although the sugar market will remain oversupplied in 2000, the 29% price decline in 1999 was overdone and some retrenchment can be expected.

SOURCE: World Commodity Forecasts

eiu.com



To: Eashoa' M'sheekha who wrote (46883)1/8/2000 10:27:00 PM
From: long-gone  Respond to of 116764
 
More about digital money - death of the US $?
Money backed by the S&P 500:

The Geodesic Economy
Robert A. Hettinga
"Who needs money anyway?": The New Monetary Economics, Monetary Separation, and Digital Bearer Settlement
One of my best friends in the whole world is Mark Tenney of Mathematical Finance in Alexandria, Virginia. The best man at my wedding, I met Mark during my mostly sad attempt to go to the University of Chicago as a "Student-at-Large", where I snuck in the back door and hung out for almost a year before they threw me out -- though, to my credit, or lack there of, it was for impecuniosity, more than anything else. "First thing you do, you get the money", and all that.

It was fun, though, and I did manage to transfer enough credit from Chicago to finish my undergraduate philosophy degree at Missouri. Up until the last five years or so, when I discovered the "University of the Internet", I'd always wished I could afford to go back some day and play some more, especially in finance and economics.

Anyway, Mark was one of those scary mathematical prodigies who finished both high-school and college in three years apiece, finished all-but-a-doctoral-dissertation in Physics at Brandeis in three years, hedging himself with an Master's, then turned on a dime and did the same thing in Finance at Chicago, hedging again with an MBA in Finance. All this before wading into the fray of quantitative fixed-income analytics-for-hire, swinging that claymore-sized intellect of his with both hands.

Last year, I told Mark that I had decided to concentrate on digital bearer transactions full-time, and he asked a bunch of questions like he always does when I reveal my latest off-the-wall idea. And not saying much in reply, which he also always does, being one of the most laconic people I've ever met. That's okay, I suppose. I talk enough for both of us.

Anyway, a few days later, Mark calls me up, all excited. Well, as excited as Mark gets, anyway. "You could issue digital bearer certificates backed up by an S&P 500 portfolio," Mark says with not much affect, followed by dead air, which is my cue to talk.

"Yup," says I, chattering away, "That's easy. Old hat. We talked about stuff like that on cypherpunks years ago. The only problem is, it's illegal in the US for various reasons, and proving that you're only issuing to and redeeming from foreign nationals is really too complicated. We don't call it 'digital bearer settlement' for nothing. Of course, that doesn't keep several smash-the-state cryptoanarchists out there from daydreaming, in color, about that idea pretty much full time. Expressions like 'tax-evasion' and 'money-laundering' only make them work harder, after all. Me, I'm only in it to reduce transaction costs. Illegal business is chump change compared to putting the entire global economy onto the net in digital bearer form.

"Steve Schear and I even figured that you could do it with just about any stock, anywhere, from anywhere, as long as it was legal in the jurisdiction you did it from. Sort of an "Unsponsored Network Depository Receipt", UNDRs, for short..." and then, I proceeded to go into an entire rant on that. In four-part harmony. Arlo Guthrie would have been proud...

Finally, I run out of gas, like I always do, and Mark says, "If you issue digital bearer certificates collateralized by the S&P 500, you won't need cash anymore." More dead air.

"Well," I said, jumping back in, "maybe, maybe not. I mean, the dollar's pretty much pecunia franca right now, yes?
(cont)
economic.net