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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (9569)	1/8/2000 3:42:00 PM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79157

<<What do you consider the best defensive position in a major market correction accompanied or triggered by inflation, rising interest rates, and a devalued dollar? (Aside from NDX puts)>> Have you considered cash?

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (9569)	1/8/2000 4:08:00 PM
From: cfimx	Respond to of 79157

>>What do you consider the best defensive position in a major market correction accompanied or triggered by inflation, rising interest rates, and a devalued dollar? (Aside from NDX puts)<< how about dividend paying real estate trusts. <g> rents should keep up with inflation.

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (9569)	1/8/2000 4:41:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 79157

re: "A major market correction accompanied or triggered by inflation, rising interest rates, and a devalued dollar" Defense would depend on expected length of correction, extent of inflation rise, interest rate rise, and devaluation. Short term, be off margin. Ride correction through with good stocks. (Worked for some in '87, I believe.) Have some gold stocks, lots of cash, maybe euros. Cash to buy bargains. Don't care that much short term about devaluation in my personal life (food/housing/car) Buy stocks of exporters. Maybe(?) should own a house- with fixed/assumable mortgage. Long term protection from high interest rates and high inflation: Only defense I see: have a job. Corollary: have a good education with good skills. Other corollary: have a spouse who has a good job. Responding here since you asked. My unsophisticated opinion. I defer to experts or people on the thread who've thought long/hard about these issues. Paul Senior

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (9569)	1/9/2000 12:39:00 AM
From: Wright Sullivan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79157

RE: Defensive Positions & Value Ideas I have been buying TPL (Texas Pacific Land Trust) at $38 to $40 as a defensive position and to provide a counterweight to one oversized tech position (DSTM). This is an asset value buy, not a growth buy. TPL owns some of the worst land in the country: 1.06 million acres of West Texas ranch land, mostly carried on its books at no value. TPL in a nutshell: - 0.405 acres of land per share - Oil & gas rights on a much smaller no. of acres. - $0.40 dividend (1%) - $1.08 cash / share - $3.45 receivables / share (land sold in past, financed) - Permanent (100+ years old) share buyback program (typically 2.5% to 3.5% of shares retired per year). - Income from oil & gas royalties from owned & sold land. (income has varied from $1.10 to $2.40 per share per year) The current TPL price ($37.75) values their land at around $82 per acre. TPL has limited upside. My target is around $60 during the next year. Oil & gas income should improve since the price of oil has increased, but there is a time lag before TPL sees the improvement. I am buying TPL as an asset play, not based on oil & gas speculation. TPL has limited downside, based on land value. Look at the 10 year chart to get a better feel for historical prices. The worst case I can picture is for TPL to stagnate in the $30's for a couple years. Best case is a double to around $75. TPL may have some use as an inflation hedge also. Also, every few months some market prognosticator "discovers" TPL and mentions it in the media (Dick Davis Digest, CNBC, etc.), and it will spike for a time. This has happened several times over the past two years. Comments welcome.