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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris Stovin who wrote (4111)	1/9/2000 9:07:00 AM
From: Glenn McDougall	Respond to of 24042

***OT*** Hi Chris, Yes, Saturday night on the old SI thread...Well perhaps that is why we will have a nice life when we retire, we spend the time (invest) learning and understanding what is going on with our stocks. Well at least it sounds good aye Chris, no wild parties, hmmmm learning about stocks or wild parties a tough choice...vbg. Back to JDSU...over the past year the stock has exceeded even my most optimistic expectations. I have not sold a share rather bought more because over the next 2-5 years I can't think of any safer bet to make a pile of cash than own a company like JDSU. My current thinking for the stock is that we should get annual growth in share price over the next five years between 38 and 50%. This would translate in Canadian dollars to $1297 to $1969 as a range. I further expect to one degree or another the front end (first 2 years) will be the strongest. Nortel has finally figured out the current mantra in business, quality is a given it is time to market that is everything. They also have a large optics business that is going to get much larger. Roth's timing to ramp like hell this end of the business will pay huge dividends for a very long time. The street understands NT's business and like what they see. LU must get their act together fast or they will be the one looking from the sidelines as CISCO and NT clean up in this market. I don't discount LU for now but as I have said in earlier posts expect one of the three to not finish the optical race the question is who. This will only show when demand slows for now almost any company can do well if they have product and can ship. I wonder about SDLI and ETEK where will they go and what will they do, any thoughts? Just to let everyone know I have owned Newbridge for a very long time and their current problems have cost many investors a lot of money. That having been said how low can you go? The bad news is they have missed a pile of quarter's numbers over the last several years and the street hates this. Newbridge is near the point of becoming the joke on the street...did you hear about XYZ company they are almost as bad as Newbridge... Now the good news...They are in the middle of testing there new 36170 50 ATM switch (2X faster than anything LU has) and response from customers is very strong. I expect full shipping in the next 3 months. They are currently 3 months away with their 36170 450 ATM switch witch will be in testing by summer and deployment by fall. This uses OC 192 and is the largest switch around by at least a factor of 9. FYI LU will move to a 50 switch in early 2001. From what I understand book to bill is trending at a much higher rate that 1:1 3dsl is ramping nicely and the lmds suite of products is coming on line, all good news. The company is moving to a outsourcing model and at last is starting to understand that quality is not the only thing the market is looking for but also time to market. The new COO is cutting expenses at a fast rate and margins should improve over the next several Q's. This is no JDS and not meant to suggest that anyone who has JDSU move funds from it to Newbridge. I do expect one of two things to occur, a buyout (50-50 chance) or a much-improved earnings. Regards Glenn