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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (14662)	1/9/2000 10:31:00 PM
From: dwayanu	Respond to of 54805

[UF] Let's see how the Gorillas fared versus Royalty and Snowball investments [Dway] I think this displays a fundamental characteristic of an old-but-still-viable Gorilla stock under general or tech market stress, "last down, first up". Useful IMO as a marker of a bottom, "it ain't over 'til the fat Gorilla cries!" [UF] Perhaps you could go back to a longer dip, like October's, and test your premise in the rear view mirror using historical prices. Sigh.... Backtest not working too well. Looked at Oct 99, Aug 99, summer 98. 1. Hmmm, the Dwayanu Effect would have called a bottom last Weds 10:30 am or so, would have been very happy for about 23 hours :-) 2. The Dwayanu Indicator is a somewhat circular definition - looks like silverbacks and other strong stocks (eg EMC/ORCL/SUNW) do go down sharply and somewhat together at a bottom, but by definition of market cap weighting, such a day is a verrrrry bad day for NASDAQ anyway, and some degree of rebound is probable. Where corrections end in climaxes, such a climax is likely such a day. 3. In a longer correction (Aug 99, summer 98), there are other days just as bad, making the Dwayanu Conjecture at most a weak after-the-fact confirmation. So, I think the Dwayanu Illusion goes on the mental back shelf, let it mellow in my right brain for a while. I still think there's an effect here, but, intraday TA on the G&K thread? let's not go there :-) Thanks Uncle <g> - Dway