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To: Dale Baker who wrote (14166)1/9/2000 4:16:00 AM
From: SteeliejimRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 118717
 
Hi Dale, Richard,

Re. BLSW, it had caught my eye too. But in doing my DD, I read an article by Gary Smith, a TA guru who writes for TSCM, indicating BLSW is still looking for a bottom. I'm no TA expert, but his logic that it has broken downward through the lower trend line and has not turned back in a strong move upward through it yet, suggests caution. Of course, a contrarian would say, "Eveybody is going to want to play it the same way, so I'd better buy early before they come in and drive up the price "help" us." So maybe you're right afterall re. buying now. You clever fellow you.

Smith does not bat a 1000, but I'm watching for a strong cross back upward through that line before I move. Unfortunately, based on Friday's explosive upward move, I might leave some dough on the table. Maybe one of our resident TA experts can help out here. On fundies, it looks like a good co. Smith says it's one of his picks for Y2000--but apparently just not right now.

SNDK is a good example of support for Smith's hypothesis. It had dropped from 90 to 60, and I decided it was bound to be near/at its bottom. I like the business it's in, and its leading postition in it (flash memory cards, which are finding their way into many apps beyond digital photography). Wrong. I watched SNDK hit 39, on a panic bottom (2nd mistake--not using discipline on a loss limit sell point no more than 10% below my buyin point), then sold when it worked its way back to my buy point (3rd--and a classic mistake. Picking the right co. but too early, then selling it with a big sigh of relief when it returns to the buyin point and sails past it.

Of course some patience would have made me a good profit since SNDK has rebounded nicely. But while I didn't bail when I should have, I didn't hang in long enough either. However, I learned from the incident, and most of the choices I did make turned out fine, mostly.