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Technology Stocks : Plug Power (PLUG) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (96)	1/9/2000 12:18:00 PM
From: Gary105	Respond to of 783

Rande: to generate 864 kw/month assuming 37% efficiency and gas at $5.50/mm btu, the following amount of gas would be consumed in a year by the fuel cell: 864 x 12 x 3412/.37 x 5.50/1000000 = $525 so in your scenario the annual operating savings is 864 x 12 x $0.10 - $525 = $512 if they can sell the unit for $4000, they may have a winner. with all respect - the comment about $100 cost of fuel is inconsistent with the electricity produced, $100 worth of fuel would only produce 170 kw per month - do the math - residential gas is close to $6/MM BTU, the unit (from its specs) operates at 37% efficiency, and there are 3412 BTU in one kw-hr if efficiency is 100%.

To: Rande Is who wrote (96)	1/9/2000 12:50:00 PM
From: who cares?	Respond to of 783

You are way underestimating the laziness of the average American. Why spend the bucks to switch when what everyone has right now, works just fine? Few will switch. Also you fail to mention opportunity cost of your money. Your saying you spend the $4-10k and start saving all this money(arguable) but what about the money you lose by having to take an extra $4 to $10k out of savings, or in most home buyers case, borrow and pay interest on an additional $4k-10k, cuts into the savings in a hurry. Ok so anyone with a brain will see that few customers will be like you and say "cut my lines." What about new home builders? Doubtful. Again, tell some 20 something new homebuyers they can go in debt an extra 4-10 large and it'll pay for itself in 5-10 years times. Get laughed at. Older people will be much less likely to fall for gee whiz technology until it's well proven over time. Who wants to be the first generation guinea pig buyers and then see these things break down half-way through their rated life. High cost areas? Supply and demand. If the demand is there the supply will rise to meet it. PLUG is one source of supply, another is new power plants that will be able to produce much more economically than a PLUG unit. Also don't forget the effects of competition. If PLUG ever began to make any real inroads I wouldn't be surprised to see big power companies miraculously find a way to cut their cost. Fuel cells to power the home, sounds wonderful, makes a great feel good 21st century Jetsons story, but chances of it ever amounting to anything, zip in my opinion. Fuel cells in cars, that might be different. CMB