Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (73115)	1/9/2000 1:08:00 PM
From: JDinBaltimore	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Anybody Want to Remark as to why? The S&P500 Cash index open interest for # of contracts is 912,797 Calls to 1,062,200 puts - The dollar value for those contracts as calculated by the Bid - (what they could be sold for now) is $9.827Billion Calls and $2.427Billion Puts. So to look at the traditional P/C ratio based on # of contracts open it's biased to a Bull mentality. I posted Open contracts, an $ value on 12/31/99 stating that I had not seen this great of a divergence in the dollar value since October of 1999. The Values at that time were Calls $11.3Billion to Puts $2.2Billion. The will adjust to an equilibrium, and what I have found, as in October before the turn with SPX at about 1235 the spread $P/C was about $2.4 Billion biased to the Call Side. I have researched this and have found that during a Bull Market This Call $ Bias is always positive, and will switch to a negative positive bias during a Bear Market. So, The dollar amounts must tend towards equalibrium; Which means the $ divergence will find balance, if this is still a Bull Market - to $6.8Billion Call and $4.4Billion Put which would equate to 1265 on SPX Cash. The markets have currently conditioned everyone that there will be dips, and if you buy them, I will only bounce right back up, young analyst are terming what happened Monday - Wednesday last week as a sharp correction, an Markets are over sold. This stuff is not this simple; But Alice, Biff, and Buffy who are conditioned to buy these dips, think they are market wizzards. The NDX towards the close penetrated a critical support resistance level of 3500 on Friday. Not taking anything away from the Tecnical Analysis Guys on the thread, But what does a close above a support indicate? It's got to move higher. Basic Fundamentals with Long Bonds approaching %7.00 don't allow that. It was a Trap! Within 2-3 weeks the markets will balance themselves to equalibrium on SPX Cash at 1250. Caviet!: I'm a nice guy and I wouldn't bet you're dollar on this happening! -vbg- Best to All John