To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (24768 ) 1/9/2000 6:32:00 PM From: Johnny Canuck Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 68440
Commentary on inflationary environment or lack there of:nytimes.com The main reason is that oil plays a shrinking role in the economy. These days, spending on oil products is equal to only 3 percent of gross domestic product, which is the total dollar value of all of the nation's output of goods and services. That 3 percent share is down from 8.7 percent in the 1970s. And oil consumption, currently 19.9 million barrels a day, is barely above the 18.8 million recorded in 1978. "That, in essence, is why oil does not have the impact on the Consumer Price Index that it once did," said Larry Goldstein, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation. Workers, on the other hand, are in short supply. But instead of demanding higher wages, forcing companies to raise prices to cover higher labor costs, workers are settling for very small raises. The old militancy is gone, wrung out of the work force through 20 years of union setbacks, downsizing and corporate migration to cheaper labor markets. Commentary on the markets:nytimes.com Q. Are you among the many folks who worry about the threat that rising interest rates seem to pose to technology stocks? A. Whenever interest rates become an issue, it lasts for a few days, and then it is back to buying. What would worry me in terms of a big compression in price-earnings multiples is if there were a lot of other really compelling investment alternatives for people. Absent that, I don't worry too much. Q. What sorts of companies do you like now? A. The types of companies we have been most interested in lately are those that provide underlying e-commerce technology and photonics companies, those who make equipment to move data on lasers. In general, we have avoided the dot-com names. That has made us a little less volatile and allowed me to sleep better at night. I think we will continue that way.