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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Greg h2o who wrote (18027)	1/9/2000 10:42:00 PM
From: Sector Investor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

Greg, from experience I know that often germs of truth are in rumor posts like this - especially when the posts seem credible - not written in a hyping manner, and there is inclusion of supporting "facts" in each post. If so, what parts might be on target? That is the hard part to guess. As you say, if we can believe management, both OA and HC WILL be IPO'ed and it really IS just a matter of time (and timing). Let's look at the three posts closer Post #1 says: MRVC Board by: emsa44 1/6/2000 4:58 pm EST Msg: 21804 of 21914 I have heard through my sources that next week MRVC announces the spinoff of OA and that Merrill is the underwriter.Has anyone heard anything similar? Post #2 in reply:: Spinoff next week... by: speed717 1/6/2000 9:18 pm EST Msg: 21817 of 21914 You've got it right EMSA. The deal will be announced next week that OA Business will be spun off with Merrill as lead. Godd sources, keep up the good sniffing Post #3 says: ipo speculation by: Bilbobaggin 1/8/2000 10:03 am EST Msg: 21878 of 21914 Rumors of OA ipo announcement next week as stated on this board are false.A little birdie told me the following: OA ipo will probably not be done until this summer. Management believes that the optical division growth rate is accelerating and would like to have 2 more quarters of accelerating growth before doing the ipo.The revenues and earnings will allow them to beat analyst estimates for the coming quarters. Hyperchannel ipo could be announced the week after next with a road show in early to mid February. Hyperchannel has a high profile former Cisco exec and doesn't add to the bottom line of mrvc yet.It also is in a very hot area as we all know. Rumor that CIBC Oppenhiemer will be part of underwriting team on Hyperchannel but can't confirm. Happy investing. ******** The first two posts tie Merrill to OA and give the timing as "next week" (now this week). The last post says HC instead of OA and a week later, but still this month. He gives detailed "reasons" why this is so, particularly the "bottom line", and we know that this has been of high importance to MRVC management in the past. A road show is mentioned and CIBC Oppenheimer is named as "part" of the underwriting team. Except for which one is first, the posts aren't really in conflict. I posted a thought based on logic, that if anything "non product related" is announced in January, it wouldn't be the week of ComNet, when there should be CW and Nbase-Xyplex news. That still leaves the next two weeks as "available" for news. SPECULATION. I myself have posted opinion that a longer OA track record (and revenue to cover the high R&D expenses that Noam stated would still be present in Q3 and Q4) might make good sense. We also know that the BLS/Marconi effort is not only accelerating, but that their efforts are being "redoubled". This would indeed look good for OA prior to an IPO, and might get MRVC a higher price. I also posted that I thought HC was about equally close to being IPO'ed, based on factors I thought were important before any IPO. Perhaps there WILL be SOMETHING happening in these next two weeks? Perhaps the first two posters are right about the OA underwriter but NOT the timing, and have also heard that something will be happening, and assume it to be OA? Perhaps the last poster's more detailed info is closer to being correct? Keep in mind that Q4 earnings are not out for 5 weeks yet. Therefore, "TWO MORE QUARTERS" could refer to Q4 (Feb 14) and Q1 (end of April), and they could still announce from May on. We only have to wait and see - something we don't like to do, but we are all getting good at it! <g>

To: Greg h2o who wrote (18027)	1/10/2000 2:20:00 AM
From: signist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

i wouldn't argue with either of them being introduced very soon. as we get into further preannouncements, earnings reports and potential interest rate hikes by the fed, i'd hate to get "lost" in a sea of information! according to mgmt, it's not a matter of "if" these companies are going to ipo'd, it's a matter of "when". now, if we trust mgmt..... It is my understanding that ONLY 20% of Optical is to be spun off. That still leaves 80% for MRV's BOTTOM LINE! How could the spin off be negative at this time? Will it disrupt production?? Has anyone done a educated guess as to possible appreciation of stock price as a result of each (possible) known segments of MRV? From a greedy shareholder's point of view(over 4 years) Possible negatives to WAITING until Summer to do the OA spin off: (Does it normally take nine months from announcing possible intentions to do an IPO?) Tons of NEW competition coming out of the woodwork in Optical. Current competition getting their act together to meet demand (plenty of these out there also) ...and the "CURRENT" Lucent effect should begin to turn the corner by this summer. Add these to Greg's list "of getting lost" and IMO these exponentially decrease the value OA's IPO Spin 0ff! I am aware MRV's optical is hot NOW! If they wait until summer..... It seems obvious to this uneducated shareholder that IF the posted rumors are true...summer ipo OA, then MRV must not be selling much of all the other areas of their networking products at this time?? ................................................................... ...they are looking to the long range future of the company. Is it possible for one company to dominate Optical for the long term??? The future is NOW! IMO. Yeh, demand will only get better but MRV's strength in this area, NOW can not possibly improve (See Above) ...unless they have invented and patented a new optical process we have not heard of???????? I am confused again. Comments? John