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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arthur Radley who wrote (30028)	1/9/2000 9:49:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

LGND has presented at H&Q every year ever since they went public at the end of 1992. In those seven years, I don't think that more than 4 press releases have been issued by LGND in association with H&Q. However, LGND has put out 4 press release in the first 5 business days of this year, and I expect the news barrage to continue. Therefore I expect at least one more press release prior to their 11:00 AM presentation on Tuesday (if they say something material at their H&Q presentation, the press release will come out BEFORE the presentation). I would say that the following news items are possible, listed in order of likelihood: Selection of second generation rexinoids by LLY (and associated milestone payment) Presentation of interim psoriasis data for Targretin Another major pharmaceutical alliance Presentation of interim breast cancer data for Targretin Another marketing alliance

To: Arthur Radley who wrote (30028)	1/9/2000 10:07:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

I think that LGND is really shooting for profitability this year. Last year they upset all of the analysts covering them and now they have to show that they were close when they convinced analysts to revise their profitability target date from 2001 to 1999 (and now virtually all have gone back to 2001 predictions, although LGND says 2000). Last year Robinson said that 1999 would be rough, but 2000 would be great. I believe that at the time of this statement (summer), he knew some of the interim data on breast cancer. I think that the banner add on the lymphoma page is part of Ligand's effort to get the word out, and I think that they have a powerful story to tell. Short term, the key is off-label use of Targretin and ONTAK and I think that the initial interim results are just around the corner. LGND has the best pipeline in the business and the most partners moving their drugs through the clinic, and I think that a news barrage will help wake up the street. It's very easy for a Biotech to go from a market cap of $500 million to $1 Billion, especially if the have approved products and the institutions start to pile on. I think that such a move began in earnest last week, and H&Q is certainly a catalyst for igniting a rather large explosion.