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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (37123)	1/9/2000 11:35:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 99985

Lee, nasdaq was traveling in a parallel channel from october lows, then broke out on 12/21, made a spike high on 1/3 and broke below the channel on 1/6. i covered my shorts on friday and went long, i believe rally in the face of lu announcement is ST bullish, plus the season for shorting is better after earnings are over, the nasdaq may try to retest the 1/3 high, but i do believe we had a buying climax on the nasdaq on 1/3 and would look at a retest of the 1/3 high as an opportunity to reshort. b

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (37123)	1/10/2000 8:37:00 AM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Respond to of 99985

Lee, tell your friend not to be shy, all he/she is risking is a moment of embarrassment if people don't agree. Fun-da-Mental

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (37123)	1/10/2000 9:49:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 99985

Hi Lee .. As imprestine pointed out there are a lot of options outstanding ITM on the call side right now. Without a pull back ASAP in the market, the sellers of these calls will be left in the posisition of having to purchase stock to deliver at expiration time. Theis could easily drive the markets parabolic into the twenty-first. Right now seems early for that kind of move .. so then.. this week we could see this pattern: The typical weekly pattern, lately, has been a pull back on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday and gains on Thursday and Friday. The Monday pull backs have typically started out with a run up that fails. I have a target based on a monthly pattern of 1372.55 on the SPX cash. We came very close to that at 1377 a few days ago and that might have been the end of that run. If we do take out that target it would probably be Wednesday of this week. I then have a run up into options expirations with a strong pull back the week after. A run up into 2/1 (end of month stuff) then a resumption of the pull back. Topping time frame arround the first should be +-three days. In other words that frame being overall up and the pull back starting after 2/3. I'm watching closely to see if this weekly pattern I mentioned gets somewhat reversed. To restate: options expiration impact has been reversed. ITM call imballance is now causing the market to move up as sellers cover. ITM put imballance causes the market to fall as sellers of puts short to cover. Ballance returns after options expire. FWIW Gersh