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To: Michael F. Donadio who wrote (31249)1/10/2000 11:10:00 AM
From: pat mudge  Respond to of 31386
 
Michael --

You are absolutely right!

Pat



To: Michael F. Donadio who wrote (31249)1/10/2000 10:16:00 PM
From: pat mudge  Respond to of 31386
 
Loring Wirbel sums up the merger:

Mergers reshape the broadband landscape
By Loring Wirbel
EE Times
(01/10/00, 3:44 p.m. EST)

DULLES, Va. ? The nature of broadband consumer access changed radically Monday through two unexpected mergers in the Internet community. America Online Inc. offered the equivalent of $166 billion in stock to merge with Time Warner Inc., and Craig McCaw's NextLink Communications Inc. offered to acquire specialized digital subscriber line carrier Concentric Networks Inc. in a stock offering worth $2.9 billion.

Though the latter deal is a fraction the size of the one that will create AOL Time Warner, it represents an unusual merger of NextLink's fiber optic backbone and wireless last-mile access with Concentric's current DSL properties and future research efforts in stratospheric airborne broadband Internet access plans.

AOL and Time Warner (New York) said they had discussed a merger since October, which makes it surprising that no word of a potential deal had leaked out before the companies' official announcements early today (Dec. 10). Equally surprising was the extent to which all executives present for a Monday morning press conference stressed the issue of rapid and egalitarian broadband rollouts, as well as equal-access policies for Internet service providers (ISPs) to cable TV systems, before discussing the financial prospects of the deal.

Time Warner vice chairman Ted Turner set an unexpected tone for the conference when he said he wanted the merger to be judged by whether AOL Time Warner was a "socially conscious" company. Time Warner president Richard Parsons said that a top goal for the combined company would be "offering broadband services domestically and worldwide in a manner to help close the digital divide." The combined company will have a valuation of $350 billion and anticipated annual revenues of more than $40 billion.

Executives no doubt recognize the importance of fast rollouts and open access to help lessen the impact of any Justice Department probes. AOL Time Warner will include such properties as CNN, TBN, Time, People, HBO, CompuServe, TBS, and Warner Music Group. Yet AOL chairman Steve Case, who will serve as chairman of the combined entity, said executives believed they are pulling together two complementary companies, where any possible monopolistic overlaps will be minimal.

Case threw down the gauntlet to AT&T Co. and other cable TV multi-system operators when he said that providing open cable access for any ISP, not just for AOL, will be a key goal of the two-way digital networks Time Warner had been building out. Time Warner chairman Gerald Levin, who will serve as chief executive of AOL Time Warner, said that the company's digital buildout of two-way cable will be completed this calendar year, and the company will prove by its actions how serious it is about open access.

Case said AOL Time Warner will look at all broadband-access methods for all types of platforms, rather than focus on cable modems for the PC. The top goal for the company this year will be to "move the Internet beyond the PC to the television, the telephone and any of a number of mobile devices," Case said.

Both Case and AOL president Robert Pittman stressed the complementarity of marketing entertainment services, particularly in music, where Pittman said the relevance of providing digital files for Time Warner's artist catalogs could prove more important than the rise of the compact disc in the 1980s. The companies made no mention of Secure Digital Music Initiative encoding, however, reflecting the fact that AOL is a big player in MP3 encoding through its acquisition of Winamp Inc., and is likely to take a much more open approach to digital distribution of music.

Beyond wireless access

Almost lost in the furor over AOL Time Warner's creation, NextLink's acquisition of Concentric (Cupertino, Calif.) indicates the degree to which the new company founded by McCaw Cellular founder Craig McCaw, does not want to be pigeonholed as a wireless Internet access company. NextLink (McLean, Va.) is making an offer for Concentric based on a 20-day average of trading price in NextLink's common stock, which would make the deal worth at least $2.9 billion.

Concentric is a competitive local exchange carrier focused on data delivery over DSL, though it also offers Web hosting and virtual private network services, making it a partner and partial competitor to the likes of Northpoint Communications Inc., Covad Communications Inc., and Rhythms NetConnections Inc. Jim Southworth, director of advanced network services and technologies at Concentric, has been a visionary in broadband access, serving as chairman of the DSL Forum and pushing Concentric to get involved with the HALO network for airborne Internet access.

NextLink chairman and chief executive Dan Akerson told a press conference Monday (Jan. 10) that many analysts had wondered why NextLink didn't just build out an additional DSL infrastructure to enhance its fiber backbone. Concentric, he said, had filed to be a CLEC in all 50 states, and had developed a reputation as a good broadband Web host, and thus fit well with NextLink's plan to be a Local Multipoint Distribution Service leader. Both companies focus on broadband access to small businesses and branch offices, though both had been exploring consumer residential access opportunities as well.

Concentric was founded in 1991, went public in 1997, and now has 1,500 employees. Its backbone, which is heavily based on asynchronous transfer mode switching, allows Concentric to offer fine-grained quality-of-service packet prioritization through the use of more than 420 national points of presence. Concentric serves as a backbone aggregation service to all-date networks from Covad and Northpoint, even though it operates as an end-to-end DSL service provider.

Concentric launched broadband wireless local loop experiments in late 1999 with Wavepath Inc., which itself was acquired by Proxim Inc. two weeks ago. Concentric also had started discussions with Angel Technologies Inc., sponsors of the HALO aircraft using stratospheric wireless links for Internet access. Thus, linking in to NextLink's LMDS infrastructure will be a natural outgrowth of where Concentric already was headed, said Concentric chief executive Henry Nothhaft.

Nothhaft noted that another key relationship that can be expanded through the merger with NextLink was Concentric's alliance with Chorio Inc., an application service provider who also has close ties to Sun Microsystems Inc. Concentric provides backbone service for Chorio's Web and application hosting, Nothhaft said, and could provide the experience for NextLink to move further toward hosted services.

Nothhaft said that users should expect the combined company to act as a full facilities-based carrier, providing frame relay, ATM, and Internet Protocol services to customers at all levels in both companies' footprints.

Akerson said that the name of the merged company will be NextLink, though the Concentric subsidiary brand will be retained. Nothhaft will become a vice chairman of NextLink.



To: Michael F. Donadio who wrote (31249)1/30/2000 4:56:00 PM
From: pat mudge  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 31386
 
I've discovered a small copper play: Pliant Systems, formerly Broadband Technologies. Actually, a former Amati follower suggested I take a look and so far I like what I see. Definitely a turn-around situation with lots of potential upside.

From the Pliant thread on Raging Bull:

By: hogans_way
Reply To: None Sunday, 30 Jan 2000 at 2:22 PM EST
Post # of 170


Hogans Notes

Pliant has done a great job in letting the public know exactly WHAT and HOW they are doing and WHEN and WHERE they are headed. This is great news for the small investors as they try and decide what are good investments. Most fund managers of the big brokerage houses stay away from the BB stocks until they are listed and some will not buy companies worth less than 1 billion dollars. This provides even a greater opportunity to buy stocks will great potential at a low price.

If you understand broadband and narrowband technology and where it is headed, then you should feel good about your long term investment in PLNS. It is rare in the stock market today that you can find internet companies like PLNS that are on the verge of exploding in an exploding market and the stock price does not reflect the long term potential. However, that will change in the months ahead. If you are new to PLNS, I will summarize below what I believe are the important points:

- PLNS has the solution to the DSL distance problem to the central office that is limiting the DSL market growth. "According to Orr (president of PLNS), the product (Pliant 3000) will enable carriers to extend DSL services beyond traditional limits to the more than 50% of potential subscribers who are not served by CO-based DSLAMS." Most estimates of DSL deployment do not factor in new technology like the Pliant 3000. Just about every article you read mentions the distance problem with DSL. biz.yahoo.com

- PLNS has been designing the Pliant 3000 for over a year. They have designed the Pliant 3000 to be EXTREMELY flexible. "By offering a full array of narrowband and broadband services, with the ability to migrate from one to the other, the Pliant 3000 will give carriers the flexibility they need in a dynamic market. At the same time, it will help lower networking and operating costs by eliminating the need for parallel voice and data networks," stated Orr. biz.yahoo.com

- PLNS has expertise in fiber optics and has designed fiber into the Pliant 3000. The past few years PLNS has been providing fiber optic product development and manufacturing services for their partners Lucent Technologies and Bosch Telecom (recently merged with Marconi).
pliantsystems.com

- The mergers in the telecom industry can provide a good way of evaluating the value of similar companies. On January 6, 2000 Nortel Networks Acquired Promatory for up to US$778 Million. Promatory announced their DSL product Jan 6, 2000 (PLNS announced Dec.15, 1999) and employs less about 100 people (PLNS has 250 and 20 job openings). The Pliant 3000 not only offers the DSL capabilities of Promatory products but also integrates internet telephony and solves the central office distance problem. This should make PLNS worth more than $778 million compared to the current valuation of $120 million. If there is one good reason to buy and hold PLNS it is the markets evaluation of US$778 Million for Promatory. This is a loud and clear signal for investors that PLNS offers great upside potential.(for full story on merger see the following url thestreet.com )

- News from the Annual Financial Report..."The company has received commitments for field trials of the Pliant 3000 from a competitive local exchange carrier and an independent local exchange carrier. Anticipating successful trials, initial product shipments are projected for third quarter." biz.yahoo.com

- The race for bandwidth deployment is heating up. Everyday there are articles about DSL/Cable Modems/Wireless bandwidth options. All three will compete in the new economy. All three will make money. (see the following article Cable, DSL and wireless vie for market leadership denverpost.com

- The market float (shares available to buy) on PLNS is tiny (aprox 5 Million shares). This is why the stock can drop/gain $0.50 with a trade of only 100 shares. Within the next 9 months, there will be periods where there will be huge swings because the float is so small. You do not want to be out of PLNS when the huge gains occur. It is hard to predict when this will happen but the best bet is to hold on and ride the stock to new highs. It is tempting to get out when the big runs occur but it can be hard to try and time the point to get back in. Just when you are ready to pull the trigger the stock runs and most investors think the stock will drop again letting them in lower. Meanwhile, the stock keeps running and you kick yourself for not being there for the next big run.

- Other than the raging bull, you can find very little discussion on PLNS. This will not last very long and is a huge opportunity for investors to get in on PLNS. (Big stock gains are usually made when you can buy before everyone starts talking up the stock) The major event that will eventually propel the stock price is relisting. That is when major brokerages will begin to nibble for a piece of PLNS. Right now most major brokerage are forbidden to buy BB stocks. After relisting, analyst coverage will begin, everyone will start talking the stock up and PLNS will head higher than anyone on this board can imagine.

The need for greater bandwidth is not going to change. Hopefully, I have given you some very compelling reasons to invest in bandwidth market player PLNS early in the growth cycle and why PLNS will be a winner. PLNS will gain greater exposure when they are relisted. Hold on and have patience. PLNS is heading right into an exploding market and they have been working hard to get there for the last few years.