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Gold/Mining/Energy : Oil & Gas Price Economics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SofaSpud who wrote (179)1/19/2000 5:03:00 AM
From: Archie Meeties  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 350
 
Here's my 0500 contribution to this thread (since it's apparent nobody here understands the price of oil).

From the Canadian Energy Research Institute...
"Fiell... cautioned prices of that magnitude were likely not sustainable for long.
``I think the U.S. government will step in, due to inflation concerns, and try to put some moral suasion on Saudi Arabia or OPEC,' he said."

Thats totally backwards. Here's the way it works - the Feds, a few years ago tell Saudi, "hey, we're going to lower oil prices for a while to set somebody up, see what you can do". They then turn on the taps, and Al assures Kuwait and the Saudi's that "we'll make it up to you". Meanwhile, Asia gets taken down to slow demand and further exacerbate the supply side. Then they toss in 400million barrels of phantom oil, in the hull of phantom tankers, and get the guys at "The Economist" to fill us up with stories of $5 oil ad infinitum (keep the UK in mind here when we get to euros). A few years later, after y2k has blown over, Al puts his arms around the sheiks and says "you remember that little favor I owe you? Well, I'm about to raise oil prices, see what you can do". They says "done before you asked".

Then the US tries to appear like its jawboning oil down, by having the energy man say "we will get oil back down", thus setting up the question "How?". At this point the energy man reassures the futures traders that we won't tap into the strategic reserves except in an emergency, and then, when it's apparent they don't want to do anything about the price of oil, it really takes off. Then the Saudi's start jawboning the price of oil UP by saying they'll never again increase production - not now, not in March, not in September, not ever. They get the Venezuelans, who are sincerely hard up for cash, to do the same. But this pretty much means that they're letting Venz pump more, because, in fact, Greenspan says "I only want enough inflation to raise interest rates the next few months, and to scare the bejeezus out of the Europeans (who import almost 100% of their energy)."

When all this is done and the bond market is attractive again, ala a slew of rate hikes (more peanuts), the price of oil comes back to earth and the energy dept. massages the numbers to show that actually there was a build from November on, but there were some tankers we were not quite sure of...

In the meantime, Kuwait exports its entire gold reserves away as a "favor" to someone, inflation and a trade imbalance rears their dual head in Europe, and a mass exodus out of the dollar and into the euro no longer looks easy. The setup of the setup.

So, $30 oil for the time being, but then, back to the $20's late this year. Again, just watch the bond market. It will predict and be in inverse relation to oil.

Now do you understand oil?
...just follow the peanuts.