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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alper H.YUKSEL who wrote (30084)	1/10/2000 4:27:00 PM
From: Torben Noerup Nielsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Alper, I want this one to go up as much as you do. But I would like to see a slightly more solid footing; i.e., real news that confirms that we're on target for a profitable year. It's too hard to tell what's going on now. Some of this might be anticipation buying from people who are expecting some fantastic news out of Robinson by the time his presentation ends tomorrow. And I'm hoping for that as I think most of us are. But I'm not yet counting on it. I think the signs are good and we've done a lot of house cleaning today. A significant number of shares got moved over a reasonable range. And there were enough small fall-backs that switched around quickly enough to make me believe that there's some sweeping going on. But I really want to hear the Fat Lady sing before I get too excited. And if she does sing nice and loud, there are some shorts who might be induced to cover. Add the momentum players to that and we could be in for a ride. Till then, I think I'll take the veggie burger :-) Thanks, Torben

To: Alper H.YUKSEL who wrote (30084)	1/10/2000 5:11:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

Stephan Loren of Legg Mason told his readers to HOLD LGND at 6 something, just a few months ago, and the he lowered estimated income because of the "laundrey list" of side effects associated with Targretin, as well as the vote for the advisory board against approval for early indications. He has been noticeably quite on the actual FDA approval for both early and advanced CTCL patients. I guess he could have lowered his rating to SELL and lowered estimates again because its going to take LGND a week to get shipments of Targretin out after the approval rec! He should probably stick to combinatorial chemistry and leave Targeted Drug Design to others. Maybe he would have liked LGND's latest FDA approval if it was for RandomRetin!

To: Alper H.YUKSEL who wrote (30084)	1/10/2000 5:23:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Actually, I think that Loren's Dec 14 comments bear repeating: Receives Advisory Committee Recommendation of Targetin for Advanced Stage CTCL Key Points · The Oncologic Drug Advisory Committee (ODAC) voted to recommend Targetin capsules for FDA approval for the treatment of cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL) in advanced-stage patients. · Rejected Targetin capsules for the treatment of early-stage CTCL patients. · Recommended further clinical trials. · Decision may cause delay in marketing of the product and will reduce the approved market by 50%–60%. · Lowering 1999 and 2000 loss estimates to because of lower expected sales and higher expected expenditures. Details · Committee Decisions. CTCL currently affects approximately 14,000 to 16,000 individuals in the United States. Ligand hopes to market Targetin capsules (75 mg) to these patients, in all stages of the disease. ODAC voted to approve Targetin capsules for the treatment of CTCL in advanced-stage patients by a vote of 13 to two with one member abstaining; however, the committee also voted not to approve Targetin capsules for the treatment of CTCL in advanced-stage patients by a vote of five to seven with four members abstaining. The committee also determined that Ligand had demonstrated a clinically meaningful tumor response rate using acceptable tumor response criteria; however, the committee determined that no other clinical benefit had been demonstrated. The committee also determined that Ligand had failed to properly characterize the patient population in terms of their response to prior therapies and also the reasons that these patients discontinued or did not repeat prior therapies. ODAC was also dissatisfied with the high number of protocol deviations, and the FDA felt that it was not able to review the submission completely. We believe that the committee was overly cautious, as CTCL is a rare and disfiguring disease. · Future Requirements. The committee also recommended that further clinical trials be completed. The panelists said that long-term data are needed to ensure the safety of the early-stage patients, who would receive Targretin over an extended period of time. Ligand' s clinical trials did show a large list of side effects, such as elevated cholesterol, severe headaches, and hypothyroidism. The side-effect profile could reduce the optimism about using Targretin to treat other cancers with larger market sizes, such as breast cancer. Earnings Impact. If Ligand recieves marketing approval for both early- and advanced-stage disease, we would expect annual revenues in the $10- $15 million range. Given the committee' s current recommendation, we expect annual revenues from Targretin of in the $5- $10 million range. The side effects also could affect future earnings from other applications of Targretin. In addition the timing of revenues may be affected by delays in completing additional trials. Also, expenditures have been greater than expected. Because of these factors, we have revised our 1999 and 2000 loss estimates per share to $1.45 and $0.61, respectively. Stefan D. Loren, Ph.D John R. Woolford Legg Mason Wood Walker, Inc. December 14, 1999 410-454-5323

To: Alper H.YUKSEL who wrote (30084)	1/10/2000 5:28:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 32384

Lorens downgrade was to MARKET PERFORM on August 18: biz.yahoo.com LGND closing price since August 18 Downgrade: LGND - Class B Common Stock Stock Price History Date Close Volume (00s) 01/10/2000 14.750 10914 01/07/2000 13.688 8907 01/06/2000 13.688 3560 01/05/2000 13.125 4265 01/04/2000 13.125 4922 01/03/2000 13.875 7748 12/31/1999 12.875 5439 12/30/1999 12.500 17078 12/29/1999 12.750 23568 12/28/1999 11.125 2835 12/27/1999 11.125 2977 12/23/1999 11.125 4437 12/22/1999 10.563 2240 12/21/1999 10.125 3154 12/20/1999 10.250 3283 12/17/1999 9.875 3520 12/16/1999 9.719 4784 12/15/1999 9.969 6577 12/14/1999 10.750 16385 12/13/1999 11.688 5 12/10/1999 11.688 9713 12/09/1999 11.375 5493 12/08/1999 11.250 7914 12/07/1999 11.063 3231 12/06/1999 10.750 2435 12/03/1999 11.000 3651 12/02/1999 10.688 3142 12/01/1999 10.688 5454 11/30/1999 11.500 13107 11/29/1999 11.000 7266 11/26/1999 10.188 3144 11/24/1999 9.750 1551 11/23/1999 9.500 2235 11/22/1999 9.375 2429 11/19/1999 9.250 1915 11/18/1999 9.531 3659 11/17/1999 10.000 1185 11/16/1999 9.875 2690 11/15/1999 10.250 4199 11/12/1999 9.969 1845 11/11/1999 10.063 2278 11/10/1999 9.813 3960 11/09/1999 9.844 4580 11/08/1999 9.031 2910 11/05/1999 8.750 2017 11/04/1999 8.688 3509 11/03/1999 8.500 1399 11/02/1999 8.000 2774 11/01/1999 8.438 4315 10/29/1999 8.188 4471 10/28/1999 7.813 1550 10/27/1999 7.750 1090 10/26/1999 7.844 949 10/25/1999 7.938 2382 10/22/1999 7.813 1710 10/21/1999 7.656 1180 10/20/1999 7.656 1011 10/19/1999 7.625 1126 10/18/1999 7.688 1793 10/15/1999 7.563 2909 10/14/1999 7.719 1317 10/13/1999 7.844 2116 10/12/1999 7.750 1070 10/11/1999 7.813 2127 10/08/1999 7.625 1548 10/07/1999 7.750 1130 10/06/1999 7.656 1151 10/05/1999 7.563 929 10/04/1999 7.500 1257 10/01/1999 7.875 1013 09/30/1999 7.625 2927 09/29/1999 7.875 1901 09/28/1999 7.750 3149 09/27/1999 7.875 1522 09/24/1999 7.750 2852 09/23/1999 8.000 2762 09/22/1999 7.875 1878 09/21/1999 7.688 3085 09/20/1999 7.750 1986 09/17/1999 8.250 1883 09/16/1999 7.875 2985 09/15/1999 8.063 1976 09/14/1999 8.125 2407 09/13/1999 8.438 3127 09/10/1999 9.188 2792 09/09/1999 9.500 6363 09/08/1999 9.250 7505 09/07/1999 8.375 6019 09/03/1999 7.750 6974 09/02/1999 7.313 22364 09/01/1999 6.563 5562 08/31/1999 6.750 2302 08/30/1999 6.688 3061 08/27/1999 6.781 4708 08/26/1999 6.938 7970 08/25/1999 7.000 4970 08/24/1999 7.250 4315 08/23/1999 7.375 2963 08/20/1999 7.313 12670 08/19/1999 7.250 6845 08/18/1999 7.063 16261