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To: JRI who wrote (95596)1/11/2000 3:45:00 AM
From: Amy J  Respond to of 186894
 
Hi JRI,

Good post.

RE: "* Finally...the point of this exercise...what about Dell? One would think they were a prime receipient of the extra chips....but, now we have the rumors of a possible Dell warning......what's your take...do you think Dell's having a bad quarter??"

One thing I do not understand is: why would any boxmaker warn during a situation of high-demand? i.e. Doesn't high-demand imply that everyone should meet their original expected revenue targets, and in fact, then an additional amount, up to what Intel has as extra? Unless demand was especially high in a particular segment? Or, maybe GW had an issue with how allocations were handled? Who knows.

I had thought that it might have been possible for 800s (response to Athlon) to bump out 400s in a fab, however, since I understand these can't use the same fab, then I believe that idea wouldn't be valid.

RE: "I guess there could be some inventory building going on (in anticipation of Microsoft 2000 launches)...that could explain some of the extra sales"

MS-2000 isn't a consumer release.

RE: "Where are all these chips going?"

Good question. Does anyone on the thread have ideas. I know there's a reported boom in wireless, but these chips aren't used there.

RE: "And who, if any PC manufacturers should have a good quarter (as a result)?"

I don't know, I only invest in IP.

Regards,
Amy J



To: JRI who wrote (95596)1/11/2000 8:07:00 AM
From: GVTucker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
JRI, RE: Who is (winning)...buying these chips from Intel (in such large supply?)

One thing to remember is that DELL's quarter ends in January. Thus, there isn't a true direct relationship as with the other boxmakers.

It seems to me that DELL is behind the curve right now, and is working very hard to make its quarter with a huge January. (Remember also that unlike the other boxmakers, December is not a big month for DELL.) So I'd guess that the volume isn't going to DELL. (Caveat: as you might have noticed from the DELL thread, I am not a big fan of DELL management, and haven't been a big fan of the stock for a year or so now, so I am certainly biased when it comes to DELL.)

I'm guessing the volume went to the major retail players--CPQ and HWP. It's the only thing that makes sense to me.