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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (14897)	1/11/2000 9:01:00 AM
From: linsol	Respond to of 54805

We New Yorkers are loving it. And buying more AOL, thank you very much.

To: LindyBill who wrote (14897)	1/11/2000 9:08:00 AM
From: JDN	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Dear LindyBill: I dont agree with your statement. True on the surface the deal APPEARS to change the underlying economics of AOL in that growth may slow meaning lower PE MULTIPLE assigned HOWEVER now they are a REAL company with REAL assets and much financial power not to mention a much higher base revenue and earnings. I am not buying AOL at this time as I think the Arbitrage spread between TWX and AOL is too large and AOL surely must come down between now and the merger date however, if and when it retracts to a level closer to 60 I plan to buy my FIRST internet stock and it will be AOL. JDN

To: LindyBill who wrote (14897)	1/11/2000 9:26:00 AM
From: Mike 2.0	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

might as well pull AOL off of our G&K list Why, LB? The combined company now owns a huge treasury of audio/visual content. The AOL/Time Warner combination should culminate in a new realm of interactive television. With vast % of homes wired for cable TV, an increasing % of homes using cable modems, ready for the broadband content (combined TV and internet experience, for example), I think you have a tornado watch here. If one believes AOL was a godzilla (king?) before the deal, you can expect a substantial CAP based increase in stock price once the interactive TV promise becomes realized. JMO, but those who feel internet stocks are just castles in the air, should no doubt notice that with Time Warner content, AOL has gone a long way towards building a solid foundation...

To: LindyBill who wrote (14897)	1/11/2000 9:34:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Lindy, I disagree with you about AOL. I think the company needed Time Warner's broadband capabilities and their content. The stock that goes along with the behemoth isn't attractive to me as it was as a slimmer, more rapidly growing independent, but I think the strategy of buying Time Warner is absolutely the best thing for both companies. The idea of Amazon.com buying Sears defeats every single argument I've heard about the new model that will make Amazon.com the the Wall-Mart of the Internet age. I don't get it, but I haven't seen anyone's thoughts about it that might influence my thinking. --Mike Buckley

To: LindyBill who wrote (14897)	1/11/2000 9:34:00 AM
From: RocketMan	Respond to of 54805

Lindy: While I respect your opinion on the AOL/TWX merger, the comparison to an AMZN/Sears merger is flawed. If this is how you view it, then I would agree that the merger stinks. But just think about it, AMZN is an e-tailer with questionable prospects and little if any BTEs, and Sears is a traditional brick and mortar company with no entry into future enabling technology of which we are aware (other than some kind of sears.com which would just copy what is already there). OTOH, AOL has captured 20M paying subs, by far the largest, and these are not techies, but average people who could care less who AOL merged with or what AOL does, as long as they get their content. Whether we like its content or not is immaterial, 20M have voted with their pocketbooks, and that number is still in the steep part of the adoption curve. TWX is an new media company that began traditionally as a B&M operation, but has converted to both click and mortar and internet infrastructure and content, with a presence in the cable, music, and television entertainment spaces. Now, if you accept that (1) the ISP business is or soon will be commoditized, and AOL needs to be ahead of that (2) the next Big Things will include interactive TV and cellular data, and (3) AOL is at ground zero of that coming tornado with AOL/TV and AOL Anywhere, and (4) TWX adds cable and augments rich content with which people are already familiar (CNN, HBO, Sports Illustrated, etc), then the conclusion I draw is that this will be the first godzilla in the new media market, a market that we can't yet fully size but will be huge. Frank, might as well pull AOL off of our G&K list, it no longer concerns us. So in that case we can go back to discussing cree. About those LED colors... <G>