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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (12561)	1/11/2000 10:29:00 AM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Ken, I didn't mean to put a hatchet job on NT, but Telecomguy comes on a little strong and I felt like the post required a strong response. a couple of points: 1. Yeah, you are right, Cambrian was in that time frame, but it was only $300M (a bargain!). The point is that NT's currency was weak at the time, restricting its ability to do deals. 2. I think NT's carrier data business will do better in 2000 than in 1999, although it is still too early to be so optimistic about the success of Open IP and Versalar - early returns are not promising. As for succession being more successful than LU's 7R/E product family, I strongly disagree. There is a good reason why LU's CO switching business grew 13% in FY99 while NT's was dead flat - customers are voting with their $. From a technical standpoint, 7R/E has alot of advantages. However, I'm sure NT will do okay with Succession. 3. Actually NT's lead in optical derives from a very specific product category - 10G SONET. LU's Wave Manager product is selling very well, including to Qwest and Williams, two very big NT SONET customers. NT will continue to ride the swell of demand for its industry leading OC192 products, but I am sure Mr. Roth is not counting on LU going away. 4. I don't understand your ASP point - Are you suggesting NT is providing application software, servers or storage? Please clarify. 5. Internet call waiting is not a big bucks application, nice but not a big deal. My question is: LU has sold over $2B in SoftSwitch internet telephony software to the likes of Level3, Williams, Telefonica, and Global Crossing. Where is NT's analogous product? 6. By virtue of being smaller (20% or so of revenue in Optical vs. 12% for LU), and first to market with OC192 SONET (95% share of this sub-category) NT is being treated like an optical pure play start-up. I think this is what makes the stock risky. I would love NT at a 50times multiple of forward, but I am scared at a 70 times multiple. My advise: watch for signs of the mo-mo guys lightening and then take some money out of NT for a short while, then get in at a more sustainable multiple. That is what we are trying to do.

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (12561)	1/11/2000 2:03:00 PM
From: chechaco	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Re: Open IP - you have to have portable, scalable (sp?) and full set of IP Routing protocols including routing policies. What Nortel has are fragments of that where one part is portable, another is scalable and almost full. Integrating these two isn't a easy task. Whole Open IP initiative reminds me of Bay's port of its OSPF into MS Steelhead (NT). Re: Versalar - you need more than just one product, you need BFR. So far Nortel has none. Without BFR Versalar doesn't have that much value. And products from former stratups like Torrent and RedStone offer greater density of ports. I'd say that Nortel is not a contender for Internet core unless it buys Juniper. ;-)

To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (12561)	1/11/2000 5:31:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

Open IP environment will be big We've discussed this one before. Kenneth, let's remember this. I'll bet you (gentlemens bet) that OIE is a complete flop. Why? - NT will compete with it's customers (think about it) - NT will need to build a software development org. - OIE by definition will always be behind the state-of-the and with it so too will those vendors that use it - OIE will be a cost center OIE has one purpose and one purpose only Kenneth - to "sick a bunch of start-ups on Cisco". NT doesn't view this is a profit center - they just want to break even and keep Cisco from breaking into the carrier space. Nortel has deployed call waiting to MSN NT got this business because of their committment to Exchange 5.5 and Platimum and Windows NT4.0, W2000. OG