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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Greg Jung who wrote (13025)	1/11/2000 1:01:00 PM
From: MeDroogies	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19080

You miss the point entirely. The market valuation will be based on revenue performance, which, with a deal like this, is likely to improve dramatically with several portions of TW holding (mainly the interactive ones), which will leverage the performance of the other holdings. I believe that this arrangement, if properly finished (that's the big if), will create scads of revenue opportunities for the merged company. It will become a cash cow. Plus, there is alot of overlap in interactive areas. I'd be willing to bet that the combined company will be able to lay off about 5,000 employees to reduce costs. The "haircut" you refer to is a short term situation as people take advantage of the arbitrage situation that exists (short 1,500 shares of AOL and buy 1,000 shares of TWX...figure it out). This will eventually even itself out and AOL will move up again...probably pretty violently. Particularly in 2 weeks when they blow out earnings...AGAIN! Most of the other .coms...I agree. It's fantasyland at this point. But you have to look back at EVERY other alteration in the economic marketplace. RR's, Steel, Radio, etc. Each one had its own bubble. Some bigger than others, some that lasted for upwards of 8 years. You can't say it's a fantasy when it's happening. It's real and there's a reason for it. It's called a scaling law. Whenever there is a shift in environments, these scaling laws kick in. We are undergoing a shift in the economic environment. You can't deny that. In the end, things will shift back to normal and you'll appear to be right. However, you'll have missed out on the x-timeframe when you could've done extraordinarily well. ORCL, BTW, is like the infrastructure stocks that supported the railroads. These stocks, while they suffered when the bubble burst, were the first to bounce back and made handsome profits in the process. Go ORCL!