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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (14926)	1/11/2000 1:33:00 PM
From: Mike 2.0	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Re EXDS I concur with Stan's assessment that EXDS is a king. I have looked very closely into ASP field for work related purposes and have been excited by what I have seen. The "information as utility" metaphor was used heavily in a recent ASP conference I attended and I concur with it. Consequently I see EXDS et al as enabling "power plants" in this new "info as utility" age. I have heard the acronym AIP (App. Infrastructure Provider) used to describe EXDS, and others like DIGX, NAVI, BWAY etc. Without the AIP the ASP can't deliver 24x7 value-add applications. The analogy that an AIP is to an ASP as operating system software is to enterprise software applications is not as specious as one may initially think...to have one you have got to have the other. So, AIPs are an enabling technology, but not "proprietary" as defined by TFM. I conclude however we have a king here. In fact I am stunned by recent articles stating that buildings with high ceilings and floor structures able to accommodate heavy loads as being sought after aggressively for loading up with networking gear! This environment translates to an incredible growth environment, where EXDS' first mover advantage is incredibly important. Meanwhile I am looking for G&K ASP plays. Portal Software ASP billing s/w solutions) sounds interesting. I am less interested in ASPs themselves because switching costs from one ASP vendor to another are not significant. One other possibility is JDEdwards which seems to have embraced ASP model more so than others in midsize ERP market, but they would qualify IMO as only a healthy happy chimp however. Not a bad possibility but not a G&K nonetheless. If anyone has any other ideas in ASP related space please post. BTW, my remark on an earlier post on this thread that no value investor would ever choose EXDS is based on my earlier "value" investing practices which frankly sucked wind. If you have time to kill check out my old posts on the Value Investing thread. For example, after XRX stumbled only then did the stock appear on the "value" investors' radar. At such a point though, you have what I now like to call a "dented can," as in the damaged goods grocery section. Maybe the food in the dented can is perfectly fine or maybe it will send you to the ER...too often the latter in the investing world. Paradoxically, the GG reduces risk vs. the "value" investing method of trying to figure out which "dented can" is OK!

To: Apollo who wrote (14926)	1/11/2000 2:11:00 PM
From: RocketMan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

re: IBM and other EXDS competitors A month ago you posted the following: 2. Would you agree that the barriers to entry in the web hosting industry are low? ie, anyone can build Internet Data Centers, etc? I think anyone could build one, but who else out there is building them as fast or can manage them like Exodus does? Intel announced over six months ago that they were going to open IDCs. So where the hell is even the first one? Exodus has opened two or three in the ensuing months. Same story with their other competitors. Intel supposedly has an IDC up and running in Santa Clara. I also found an old story about the Intel New York Music Festival in 1998, which was done in combination with Real Networks, Unisys, and -- guess who -- Exodus. In fact, Exodus was the web server hosting company, and Unisys was to use their own IDC in New Jersey. So, if the IDC industry growth is close to a tornado, I find it very surprising that the competition would not be a real concern, especially since there are few if any BTEs and we know that at least Intel and Unisys were playing in this space a couple of years ago.