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To: Greg Jung who wrote (13027)	1/11/2000 2:35:00 PM
From: Bob Sutton	Respond to of 19080

You need to get Sally Struthers working on that one right away, "please send an extra .20/day so these children will have enough to buy a cell phone." Sorry, Greg, but you should know by now that no new social spending program gets to the Sally Struthers stage until Big Government has first had a crack at it. I have it on good authority that Sen. Kennedy will introduce a bill in the next Congress authorizing x billion dollars for CDMA royalties associated with his proposed Wireless Wealth Re-Broadcast Act of 2002. After a proper interval applying the Big Carrot, they send in the clowns. Bob Sutton

To: Greg Jung who wrote (13027)	1/11/2000 2:51:00 PM
From: MeDroogies	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19080

Greg...it isn't "my" scaling....it's a LAW and a well defined law at that. Our current mania only began in earnest a year and a half ago. It is in the early stages. If you check typical manias w/in the market regarding particular sectors, you'll find some that lasted for up to 8 years. I don't disagree with the fact that the "new" paradigm isn't anything...but there is truth that the current valuations are justified - just not for reasons that match the past or will even make sense in the future. If you have studied anything involving "phase transitions" (water turning to ice, for example) you'll find that there are stages at which certain things are not explainable using definitions that match previous or future phases. We are currently at a juncture not unlike that. You should embrace it, but not believe that it will last forever (as some maniacs think). If you do, you'll make more money and be able to know when to get out. The AOL point is a turning point. The market is due for one last full blast, which is likely to run until August. At that point, I'd be willing to bet there will be a retrenchment. That said, remember that we are also in a very healthy economy, chock full of ESOPs and 401(k)s. It is possible that the current valuations WON'T collapse, but slowly leak. I would say a collapse is only imminent once unemployment hits 6%. At that point, people will draw down on stocks to supplement unemployment insurance/401(k)s won't be as well funded/a budget deficit will begin to develop again due to increased gov't expenditures.