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To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (58263)	1/11/2000 1:53:00 PM
From: ChanceIs	Respond to of 95453

Iraqi cuts should be expressed today. Does anybody remember back to November, you know one and a half months ago. Iraq stopped exporting for three weeks on November 24. According to the Bloomberg article posted below (link no longer active), it takes 40 days for Persian Gulf oil to get to the US. If the cuts took place on 11/24/99, then the effect of that would be felt here on 1/3/00. Five days of those cuts should be reflected in todays API numbers. Five days at 930 K/day yields some 4.6 million barrels. We should have an enhanced draw today and for the next two weeks. Comments please. From Bloomberg 12/16/99: U.S. Supplies may be augmented in January by renewed exports from Iraq, which began loading tankers today after halting exports three weeks ago. The first loadings began at Iraq's port of Mina al-Bakr shortly after midnight, said the United Nations, which oversees Iraqi oil sales. Shipments from the Persian Gulf take about 40 days to travel to the U.S. Iraq was the fifth-biggest outside supplier to the U.S. in October, shipping in about 930,000 barrels a day, or 11 percent of U.S. imports, according to the U.S. Energy Department. quote.bloomberg.com