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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Madarasz who wrote (37205)	1/11/2000 1:53:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

John, i guess S&P didn't want to get caught out as it did with the Asian crisis...sure, there is concern in certain circles. undoubtedly the bubble has been spotted by many people by now. i guess that was impossible to avoid. after all the Japanese bubble also got identified and labeled as such way before it actually burst. imo many market participants are well aware it's a bubble, but as is always the case with investment manias, they either believe they can get out in time with their profits intact (no-one stops to think for a moment that it is a practical impossibility for everyone to get out at the top), or they are forced to stay invested by statute and well versed in sending out 'we're in it for the long term' letters to their shareholders whenever things begin to look dicey. the WS establishment will fight a crash/bear market tooth and nail and can count powerful friends (e.g. the Fed) to side with them. lots of vested interests here, but then that could be said of every investment mania, and they still all ended the same way. excess always meets up with reality at some point. imo the credit bust danger cited by S&P can not be stressed enough. the leverage in the U.S. financial system, in corporate and household balance sheets is truly mindboggling. regards, hb

To: John Madarasz who wrote (37205)	1/12/2000 12:20:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 99985

Short term at least the dollar seems to want to go lower John, I would have to agree with you. futures.tradingcharts.com futures.tradingcharts.com It will likely continue until the Fed finally acts. I think the internet boom has ended until maybe March or April. And then, in anticipation of the elections, the Fed will maintain a hands off policy on rates leaving the second 1/2 of 2000 for a rally in both bonds and stocks. I think Bank stocks could be a major winner after March or April. Regards, Ron