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To: carepedeum2000 who wrote (18454)	1/11/2000 6:41:00 PM
From: Silver_Bullet	Respond to of 57584

Market---I believe techs are headed lower before higher In trading volatile stocks one often sees a long base just before a quick rise to stardom. It is nice to have been in prior to the rise which is a more likely scenario for the "investor" but it is what comes during and after the rise that provides opportunity for the trader more so than the investor. It's what happens after the peak that is important...it will most likely show the direction of the stock or market on a short time frame.... And I am about to describe a likely scenario, after the peak ,that many stocks go through...and which I believe the Nasdaq is showing us right now... After the peak there is usually a quick sell off and a rebound. It is this rebound that identifies if there is strength or weakness on the short term. A rebound above the previous high shows strength, but a failure to take out the high shows weakness. We had a hell of a run from Late October to Jan 3 which many stocks tripled, and we saw the QQQ go from 128 to 192 at it's peak. It peaked and then there was a 3 day extremely quick sell off which saw the QQQ hit 161 or 16% sell-off before, on the 4th day we started back up. The QQQ hit 183 or so on the rebound, not surpassing the previous top, and now looks to be heading back down which to me shows short term weakness. The fact that the QQQ didn't surpass the previous high indicates to me that we have possibly started a down trend, or at least a consolidation phase, that this is a trader's market and that the smart investor will wait for some a clear bottom, direction or really really oversold conditions to buy back in. If 160 holds as the support for the QQQ I will bet the we will consolidate. If not then I would say we are starting a downtrend and we should see lower highs and lower lows until there is a reason for us to change our views and throw money back into the market for the long term. FT

To: carepedeum2000 who wrote (18454)	1/12/2000 12:25:00 AM
From: johnsto1	Respond to of 57584

ARIA...is there more to this story The ‘billion dollar' quote by: Aurileano 1/11/00 11:41 pm Msg: 3615 of 3618 From the abstract of patent #6,011,018 (which, from my, scannning covers the entire ARGENT platform): ‘…the dimerizers (i.e. the molecules driving ARGENT) have the potential to serve as "universal drugs". They can also be viewed as cell permeable, organic replacements for therapeutic antisense agents or for proteins that would otherwise require intravenous injection or intracellular expression.' If you want a billion dollar drug, I would guess a ‘universal drug' certainly wouldn't hurt. Nor would it hurt much if self same drug replaced antisense therapy or other approaches requiring iv injections. -------------------------------------------- I've followed Ariad's science for 2+ years and I'm quite familiar with it. The events of the last ~2 weeks have not involved any new scientific data (although I'm not yet aware of the data presented at Keystone). The most recent publication by the company, the ‘clustering' paper published 6 weeks in PNAS, was consistent with all the previous work from the company: absolutely top notch science with a distinctly creative flair. The major changes that have occurred have happened outside the scientific realm: 1. the company has received $40 million from HMR from the sale of its 50% stake in the genomics facility and 2. today's news regarding the patents. While my background is in sceince (and that is what brought me to Ariad – it's the only biotech stock I've ever owned), the recent events put the company on a substantially firmer foundation than even 4 weeks ago. Not only does the company have cash and a much narrower focus (good) with a very strong platform (ARGENT), the ‘formalizing' of this platform with the patent announcement today virtually assures Ariad (IMO) a steady and rapidly growing income from the licensing revenue (and their own ARGENT based applications). Today's response by the market, as reflected especially by the volume, was a belated recognition that ARGENT may indeed be an incredibly valueable reagent; a reagent whose potential uses really are almost unimaginable and a reagent that many other companies could apply to numerous CURRENT approaches. With the patent now in effect, Ariad has locked in place the foundation for a potentially tremendous revenue stream. I've been making statements to this effect, on this thread, for over two years. A couple of the other oldtimers have as well. Following the events of the past 2 weeks, it would seem there are now a couple more folks who agree with our assessment of ARGENT. Posted as a reply to: Msg 3605 by Pirkkal Go to Msg #: < Previous \| Next > [ First \| Last \| Msg List ]