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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dppl who wrote (24787)	1/11/2000 9:52:00 PM
From: d. alexander	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 68255

>>>Two brokers rang me yesterday to talk about the AOL deal, and I told them I thought it was fundamentally very bearish for the Nutters Thomas, I think you've got company - from Briefing 09:29 ET America Online (AOL) 72 5/8: Schroders downgrades Internet service and content provider from "outperform significantly" to "outperform" and lowers their price target from $105 to $85 as combined AOL Time Warner will see slower growth than AOL pre-merger and arbitrage activity is likely to put pressure on AOL share value until the deal closes in about one year. I was remembering your admonition re: rates exceeding 6.5% & wonder if there are any comments on that? Tho' it was some time ago! Great to hear from you. Dorothy

To: dppl who wrote (24787)	1/12/2000 12:19:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68255

Hi Thomas, Good to hear from you. I agree that most of the technical indicators and fundamental measures have lost most of their relevance in the current market, though support and resistance still seem to be working. It is now not uncommon for indices to run 2 or 3 support/resistance level with very little effort. It reflects the psychology of the market right now. People are too afraid to get out fearing that they will miss the next big run, but will sell at a drop of a hat to protect profits, sizeable I would gather for most people. The last few years have trained people well to buy the dips. Part of what is driving the market is the amount of foreign money entering the US market right now. I glanced at a report the other day indicating that the inflows are at record highs. The retirement saving contributions should continue to add steam to the system also till the end of March/April. On the nets, I thinks we have already see a selected correction. The E-tailer were down 20 percent as group last year. AOL may take the steam out of search engine and content providers, but I think B2B may give some life to the group. But, as in any war the person to bet on is the supplier of the bullets and right now that is the hosting companies and the software contracting companies. Now matter who win they get their pound of flesh. My general impression is a correction in I-Net will not stop most companies from launching a B2B I-Net strategies this year as it probably has been in planning for the last year and has just been on hold due to the Y2K concerns. With IT budgets now freed up, that kind of spend can not go ahead. Are the valuation justified. H*ll no, but the "mood" can keep going for a long time. I sat in my favorite coffee shop the Sunday after New Years eve reading the New York Times and a young guy in his early twenties in the both behind me swore to his friend he was going to give up drinking and going out to the clubs this year so that he could put the money in the markets. What do they say about the guy on the street is the last to know and when the last suck gets in then that is the top of the market. Harry