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Pastimes : Kosovo -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Clarke who wrote (15734)	1/12/2000 5:25:00 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17770

Dunno... Below is the most recent scrap mentioning both Lebed and Berezovsky I've found on the internet. cdi.org Moscow Times September 24, 1999 PARTY LINES: Elections Are Political Y2K For 'Family' By Brian Whitmore Staff Writer Russia's super-presidential system was designed back in 1993. And while it may now seem incredibly short-sighted, it seems there is a design flaw --a bug if you will. The entire system could crash in 2000 when President Boris Yeltsin goes. Call it Russia's political Y2K problem. The problem is that the fabled "family" --that cabal of Kremlin insiders who got rich and powerful due to their proximity to Yeltsin-- are bumping into a biological reality. One of these days, sooner or later, one way or another, Yeltsin is going to leave the Kremlin. The system as set up now works beautifully for the family and its state-assets-fattened oligarchs. But when Yeltsin leaves, things go a bit haywire --elections are supposed to choose his successor. For some oligarchs, this is the functional equivalent of the power grid crashing, electronic bank accounts evaporating, planes dropping out of the sky and other calamities associated with Y2K crises. The family --first daughter Tatyana Dyachenko, oil tycoons Boris Berezovsky and Roman Abramovich, Kremlin chief of staff Alexander Voloshin and presidential ghostwriter Valentin Yumashev-- is safe as long as Yeltsin is alive and kicking (although the more feebly he's kicking the better). But as soon as he goes, they are toast --or so they appear to assume. This is what drives all the searches for a suitable successor --Viktor Chernomyrdin, Sergei Stepashin, Vladimir Putin, Alexander Lebed-- to the same inescapable conclusion: no matter how loyal a president-in-waiting appears, there is no guarantee that he will not turn on the family once his wait ends. Once securely in the Kremlin, what use would Stepashin, Putin or Lebed have for Dyachenko, Berezovsky and Abramovich? None whatsoever. Any new president who wants to make a clean break in the public mind with the corruption of the past decade will need to at least appear to clean house upon coming to office. Either way, Berezovsky gets it. Therefore, the family won't trust any heir, no matter how loyal he may be to Yeltsin. When Sergei Stepashin was appointed prime minister in May, the consensus was that the Kremlin valued his "loyalty." There was also his law-enforcement background, which would come in handy if the need arose to declare a state of emergency. Just 82 days after his appointment, Stepashin was cast by Yeltsin on to the trash heap of loyal ex-prime ministers. Analysts like the respected journalist Alexander Zhilin said Stepashin's ouster came because he refused to go along with plans to subvert the Constitution and cancel elections. Enter Vladimir Putin. Putin's most attractive attribute from the Kremlin's point of view was his loyalty to Yeltsin. And yes, there is also his KGB background should emergency rule be needed. Putin has been in office for a month and the media is already whispering that he is on the way out --to be traded for Krasnoyarsk Governor Alexander Lebed, who was a Kremlin security tsar in 1996 and negotiated peace in Chechnya. But even if it's Lebed who ultimately comes to power through elections, why would he tolerate the family more than Putin, say, or Yevgeny Primakov? [...] I'll venture to answer this last question: Lebed's hardcore background as a former successful army general, together with his outspoken disdain for business people, should be enough for (President) Lebed to compromise over Yeltsin's legacy. Up to now, Lebed has cleverly refrained from any political squabble and/or haggling with a discredited Kremlin.... However, once elected as Russia's last resort savior, he should enjoy enough clout to enforce a Day-of-Atonement amnesty as regards Yeltsin's regime. While Putin might also be committed to such a post-Yeltsin tabula rasa, his credibility gap stems from his rise to power itself: unlike Lebed, Putin will always be branded as Yeltsin's oblig‚ ()..... Gus. () icbl.hw.ac.uk

To: Tom Clarke who wrote (15734)	1/13/2000 5:23:00 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 17770

Wednesday January 12 8:15 PM ET U.S. Won't Mediate Russian Conflict WASHINGTON (AP) - The Clinton administration ruled out a role for the United States in mediation between Russia and the rebels in Chechnya, and suggested Europeans could take on the job. But as Russian forces resumed an offensive in the republic Wednesday, there was no indication Moscow would heed U.S. advice that it seek a political solution to a threatened secession by negotiating with Chechen leaders, ``We don't believe that the result of the use of force is going to be the melting away of resistance,' the State Department spokesman James P. Rubin said. ``We believe that the Russians are in a cul-de-sac, that they cannot by their current strategy come to the end of road because there is no end to this kind of fighting.' [snip] dailynews.yahoo.com Charles, This is really a smart trick by the Clinton admnistration: "...and suggested Europeans could take on the job." For Americans are well aware of Europe's inability to cope with a touchy situation such as the Chechnyan conflict.... The State Dept. knows how fond France, Russia, and other countries are of the OSCE framework --wherein the US influence is much more diluted than in NATO. So, the ploy is to keep out of the Chechnyan mess-up while simultaneously pressing all-set-and-ready Europeans to hack it.... Obviously, the expected outcome is for the world to contemplate Europe eventually holding the bag in the Chechnyan rattrap.... Only then, the US will offer to mediate in the conflict --scoring points for NATO's expansion. Gus.