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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (14949)	1/11/2000 11:51:00 PM
From: TigerPaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Without the proprietary architecture the company will participate at most in a royalty game. To use a quote I stold from the Qcom thread: (And shamelessly argue from authority by reference) Message 12539464 To: Jim Lurgio who wrote (2456) From: George Gilder Monday, Jan 10, 2000 7:33 PM ET Reply # of 2490 I think alot of people missed Qualcomm and are groping for a wireless standard bearer, not understanding that it is not the patents but the tacit knowledge, skills, and prowess honed over a decade that make Qualcomm what it is. --GG It seems that the Manual emphasises that a Gorilla must have substantial barriers to entry by a competitor. Patents and proprietary architecture are certainly barriers but not necessarily the only barriers. I think a great case in point is JDSU which is damned with faint praise as a King when I see them as having tremendous barriers to entry by competitors through tacit knowledge, skills, and prowess. I think much of Lucent's problems is that they tried to compete with JDSU but couldn't pull off the skills and resulting volumes necessary. I maintain it not necessary to show proprietary architecture if there is another barrier. TP

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (14949)	1/12/2000 12:47:00 AM
From: chaz	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 54805

Excellent points, Mike, and thanks for mentioning them early in the ELON project. We now have five volunteer "project leaders"...including I might add a lady, so this isn't a men's club only. If you're following the thread as a lurker, you should absolutely be reading Gordon Moore's books...starting with "The Gorilla Game." If Mike's remarks to Gary were in the least mystifying,...well, the book will sort it out for you.

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (14949)	1/12/2000 1:28:00 AM
From: garyx	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Overexuberance and Retrenchment on ELON Upon Mike Buckley's urging, I'm posting an edited version of a private message to him backing down on some of my thoughts on Echelon. Echelon has, I think, a great chance of being the leader in a technology of an enormous mass market interest -- embedded device networking allowing Intra and Internet access to everything from the temparature of the refrigerator to the lights on the back of the house to -- perhaps the closest to take-off -- industrial and business processes. It has a partnership with Cisco, nine years of work on its product, and it has successfully enshrined its open LonWorks system as the standard in some crucial areas. It is not, however, a Gorilla, and may not become a King (although I'm hoping). It is simply a company with impressive technology and a great position in the beginning of what instinct tells me is going to be an enormous market. It clearly isn't at the beginning of a tornado. Its revenue growth is not impressive, it has never broken even in its life, and it survives on dreams of a great future. If it can protect its LonWorks standard from being overthrown, and if it can successfully market its technology and ramp up production, it may become a powerful player. Some of the difficulty in really analyzing this company is the reticence of its management -- interviews with its CEO is like trying to pry state secrets from the KGB. Their "neuron chip" -- which is critical in every embedded device that will make this technology work -- is not built by them but is licensed to Cypress, for which they get a royalty. They also sell the routers, interfaces, tools, etc, to build and maintain the entire system. If this technology takes off, they may become a king. Right now it's merely a bet, whether good or bad, a far cry from other companies farther along in the gorilla game. However, I believe its possibilities are enormous and its positioning impressive. It should be watched for impressive revenue growth. But goddammit, it's exciting! :D G