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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (61676)	1/12/2000 8:11:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

marginmike: Amen...one person gets run off because he/she had a little racy alias and Jim Willie puts stuff like the following at the end of his post on a regular basis and no one says anything... one hedge in the hand is worth two in my bloody stool / Jim Willie Go figure... Speaking of Jim Willie CB he has really been on target as of late...LOL! Jim Willie CB: <------------- OK, I can't read anymore of your unwarranted bragging. Let's look at few of your more recent calls the last few days... Jan 7, 2000 - 9:43am - TA: if there is anything at all to learn about technical analysis, it is the deep truth that TA's value is greatest when the market is rational, calculated, watchful in a calm environment That is laughable! When QCOM is going up maniacally and you call for QCOM to go up and your "TA" seems to work, TA is good, but when you call for QCOM to go up or for support that does not hold, TA does not work because of panic. In other words it works when your right and not when your wrong...LOL! So when your right let's all praise you and when your wrong, its not your fault...ROTFLMAO! Jan 7, 2000 - 2:03pm - if we get a symmetric reversal, with techs rebounded much like what the Dusty Dows did this week, we could see 170 or 180 very very quickly Whoops... Jan 7, 2000 - 3:59pm TA conclusion: TECH SELLOFF DONE" Whoops... Jan 10, 2000 - 10:23am TA: look for a quick return to 170's in next few days this stock's price path is the most symmetric I have seen in years Whoops... 157-160 should offer some token resistance it offered solid support until emotions stampeded it last week unfortunately, some buyers at 160 on the way down will "walk away even" at this chance old support is new resistance, but not for long . THE BIGGER PICTURE: the move from 175 to 140 is now in reverse Whoops... Jan 11, 2000 - 11:54am we are now in the retraced path portion where 150 is tested and retested, until the bigplayers finally give up on lower prices... Whoops... Jan 11, 2000 - 12:51am they tried to soak up demand over lunch, still trying got it to 150 flat, but now working its way upward Whoops... Jan 11, 2000 - 2:35pm downside down and gone say goodbye to 140's Whoops... Jan 11, 2000 - 11:36pm - I expected about a 10% selloff and quick recovery last week this is a warning to be heeded I expect each selloff following runups and stalls to be just as severe (at least) last week we saw 180 to 140, which is about 23% in decline QCOM topped at 200 and bottomed (so far) at about 133 that is a 33.5% decline. sorry Molloy, you are right -- my TA is pure bullshit That is the first correct thing you have said in weeks. Jim Willie CB <-------------- Never has had a clue! Eventually you folks on this thread will realize it. QCOM has been down as much as 67 points from the top at 200 post split. That is the equivalent to 268 pre split points, a 33.5 percent drop. Surely that is enough drop to have been worthy of a warning before the fact, by the thread TA guru. Now I read Voltaire spewing about a coming 40% drop after the next run up. He seems to be glazing over the fact that he and his angels failed to pre warn for this drop which has been (so far) almost as severe as his "coming" drop... The fact is QCOM was going up with or without the self proclaimed guru cheerleaders on this thread. When QCOM pulls back or enters a prolonged decline, it will do it no matter how much the self proclaimed gurus cheerlead...think about it! Often, folks that sell to late, end up in the same boat as those that sold to soon... Regards, LG

To: marginmike who wrote (61676)	1/12/2000 8:11:00 AM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Mike: Do you think the trend in CDMA growth will be jilted if QCOM's stock price falls below a support line? I would recommend that any long term holders that believe in the growth of wireless communications, especially CDMA, not worry about anything except the fundamentals of this company. We both probably hold so much QCOM that it makes us think about these short term swing moves in the same way that Voltaire theorizes about the manipulation of the market makers. I have no problem with stock prices regressing to 50DMA. It's just part of the changes in money flow in the market. I do find it interesting to note that there was $10 billion in cash flow into equity mutual funds in the past 2 days. That ought to give the fund managers some money to put to work. In any case, if I were just starting to build a position, I would be licking my chops in anticipation of any price regression to the 50DMA. If it went below that I would just keep adding. Keith

To: marginmike who wrote (61676)	1/12/2000 8:24:00 AM
From: RocketMan	Respond to of 152472

With all due respect to you voltaire if Qcom breaks its 50DMA I would advise all to sell. Which 50-day avg are you refering to? I show around 115 for the 6-month exponential moving average. So for Qcom to break that, it would have to dip to 105-100 or so. Are you suggesting people should sell Qcom at that level? I would be loading up the truck myself, unless there was a fundamental reason for a long term stock decline. Not to overdo the comparison with AOL, because I realize they are totally different companies, except for the mo. AOL was up around 180 (pre-split), then dived down, broke through its 50 day, I think it even went through its 200 day, and settled in the 80's. Those who sold at the 100-105 level would have saved another 20% but would have lost out on another 100% run within a few months. Of course, you can argue that they should have jumped back in when they saw the run beginning again, but not many have the time or the talent to time these things. So for me, I will try to hedge my current holdings if I see signs of a severe correction, of which we will have several, but I am focusing on 2002. That is my time horizon for this one. Good luck.

To: marginmike who wrote (61676)	1/12/2000 10:07:00 AM
From: JohnG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

MM. I think you suffer from a bad case of "Black Dog" any time there is a serious correction. Testing the 50 day moving average is not a religeon for me and I don't have a fetish for moving average charts. What we have here is a stock that appears to me to have fundamentals that justify a $600/150 stock today. However it is in a hot industry with a high profile and can support higher prices if the market taves it there. It is trading now at apx $145 which is 19% off its high close of 179 on 1/3. It is just too good a value at the 50 day moving average price of 114 for it to ever get there barring jarring news or some dive in the NAZ. It isn't like some internet web site stock having no earnings and trading on hope. It is popping up on everyone's list of top picks for 2000. All this volatility es expected with recent run, 4:1, a new tax year, huge built in fund profits in a single stock (remember, Greg Powers was forced to sell half his shares in summer 1999to meet prudence rules, despite his huge faith in the stock), a huge number of Jan options expiring on 1/20 (many hving rediculously low strikes, earnings report on 1/25, sale of phone divition details unknown. This is a news driven stock and good news could be reported at any time. Remember that one characteristic of gorrila stocks in a tornado is that earnings are continualy underestmated. Open your eyes and look around--don't just look at that damn 50 day moving average. JOhnG

To: marginmike who wrote (61676)	1/12/2000 11:21:00 AM
From: exbenzive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

AMEN MM! There are some important things that we can't overlook for the near future. It's pretty safe to say that Nokia was bidding for the handset division. In my mind this was a flat out admittance that they can't make/keep up with the mobile ASICs. They have a very bad track record for that. This says one of two things to me; Nokia needs Qcom ASICs and they could possibly be still negotiating with Q for engineering support. The latter may be a pipe dream, but Nokia needing ASICs is a real hafta for them to really compete in this upcomming market. So the question is when will they announce such a deal? I don't think they can wait to much longer. The world is moving right past them. I would guess that a deal would be cut before Feb end. Let's hope! Now let's talk HDR. What's up with all the Hatachi and Q news in ASIA and nothing here? News leaking out that Q doesn't want out yet? Sounds a little fishy. Why wouldn't Q want this public? Timing? They better get infrastructure manufacturers on board fast to make a Jan 01 rollout. My guess is that that news will be made public soon too. Again, I hope sooner or later. Following Voltaire's advice and use these dips as buying opportunities is what I'm doing. I have Feb 200s and truly believe that we'll see 200 by month end. I agree with MM, IJ has never been so bullish on hinting about earnings. He has been a "world watch and see what we did" kind of guy. Other than the selling of Q stock to raise capital blunder, Q has never tried to minipulate the market. Irwin is the real deal. Even in the "This Week" and "CNBC" interviews, you could see it in his face that in a year his comments will be, "NIENER NEINER, TOLD YOU SO!" Check out all the little companies popping up with little data devices. Is the world ever happy with the fastest PC today, NO, they want it faster. The question of whether HDR is needed for such little data thingies is a definite yes! Qcom better be working on the next generation of HDR because your going to see an explosion of data devices in the years to come. Will HDR dominate? Ask yourself 2 questions; 1)how close is anyone else to have such a technology with speed and capacity as HDR. 2) has anyone else had the foresight to see data bigger than voice and made a data solution only (not mixed with voice that could be overlaid on GSM/TDMA systems)? Good God people, you are the fortunate ones to be swinging from the VERY VERY large testicle hairs of this gorilla. exbenzive