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Non-Tech : Ingram Micro -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: flickerful who wrote (452)	1/22/2000 9:11:00 PM
From: Dale Stempson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 576

It's been difficult watching Ingram Micro slowly drift back down to this level, although not totally unexpected. Uncertainty about IM and the distribution sector in general remains on the minds of investors. Since the preannouncement last September, we've been more or less in a holding pattern with nothing much out there to indicate the situation has changed. Well, FWIW, I think it's time for us to begin moving up. Positives such as being the largest player, having a low P/E, trading below book (or near book if you dump goodwill), etc. etc. make the stock attractive, but we need something significant to happen in order to break out of this funk. Perhaps I may have been overly cautious about just how much impact Y2K related lockdowns and spending deferrals will have on the December quarter. The fact that there hasn't been a preannouncement offers some hope that earnings might come in close to consensus, (one that analysts already revised lower due to heightened Y2K concerns). In addition, retail sales were strong this holiday season, and since IM is the largest supplier to the retail folks, we shouldn't have to worry about that segment. There does exist the possibility of good news if management was able to shake off the reorganization issues that caused them to take their eye off the ball in the previous period. I expect they made real progress with their internal problems, but I'd be surprised if it will be enough to significantly affect the numbers. What very well might be the ticket back into this game could come from the conference call. We simply need to hear confirmation of some of the expectations expressed by channel executives a couple months ago. Here are a few of their comments: "...channel executives expect a sales explosion after the first of the year." "...A backlog of delayed purchases is building among customers, said analysts." "...Sometime in the first quarter of 2000, corporate America will turn the spigot on and an overflow of purchases will pour into distributor and reseller ordering systems, industry executives said.." "...there's an incredible backlog in demand and it's going to explode in February or March" (Steve Raymund, CEO, Tech Data) "...2000 will come in like "gangbusters," (Joel Pitt, VP & Channel Analyst, CSFB) "...said he, too, has noticed a lot of pent-up interest that should translate into a significant increase in business during the first quarter." (Jim Illson, CEO, Merisel) Reference CRN article (post 372) Message 12094176 I feel there's very little downside risk at this point and plenty of potential for IM to go up from here. Geez, this company actual makes money every quarter! I'm going to add to my position on Monday. Regards - Dale