To: Ross who wrote (73417 ) 1/13/2000 12:43:00 PM From: Knighty Tin Respond to of 132070
Ross, You haven't looked at Compaq's warehouses. People were saying exactly the same thing the last three times CPQ overbought on incentives. <g> Here is the way this scam can work. Intel tells Compaq that we have to put on a brave face since the quarter stank so bad. We will give you a rebate on purchases of this dead meat chip if you take delivery now so we can pad this quarter. In the meantime, we will tell the suckers that demand is tremendous despite all of the actual sales numbers that have come out, the comments from all of the distributors, and the collapse in retail sales, even in units, much less in price. That way, you, Compaq, may be able to sucker some naive customers into this new chip with one of your rummy boxes. So, what we do is bill full price now and give you a rebate next quarter. Believe me now, pay me less later. Also, if we can use enough blue smoke and mirrors, folks may not notice the way AMD and Apple have cleaned our clocks in the retail system, especially in notebooks. However, Intel is much too sophisticated to try it as blatantly as I just wrote. They will probably hide the scam in other parts of the report, if, indeed, they make their kind of lousy expected number with a receivables dump. We know that all of the contract producers are over inventoried, which is one reason I have done so well with my Solectron puts. There are certainly many other ways for them to flim flam the eps for one quarter. Some are expecting a massive capitalization of inventory costs on the balance sheet. Also, there could be some more churning of the investment portfolio to produce capital gains. And about 30 other possibilities for a one time game. That is what makes Intel so much fun, though not nearly as much as IBM, which is the master of this sort of thing. All the wildebeest tend to run in the same way at the same time as soon as they see the lions. And the lions eat their fill at that time. I was thinking more of the herd of cattle rushing to be slaughtered for my t-bones. <g>