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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (18731)	1/13/2000 12:12:00 AM
From: ld5030	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29970

Allow me to talk all of you down from the ledge. AOL's acquisition validates that cable is 'it' for internet access, and ATHM is way ahead in this regard. ATHM has been clipping along at about 2,000+ subscribers per day for the last two or three quarters. You can't mail out install discs in this business, you have to evangelize door to door. AOL can not go any faster. They have to take that glorified marketing machine and turn them all into installers. Ah thinks that ATHM has squandered its lead. Why? He reasons it is because they bought Excite. Sorry, Captain, but this is a non-sequitor. How many more subs could they have had if they did not buy Excite? Zero. Jermo's master plan of merging content with broadband may not prove to be sound, but it did not hamper subscriber growth, and it is the same strategy that AOL is now following. Another popular doomsday theory is that AOL will now take over ATHM's territory when open access comes. Open access is a long way away. Between then and now AOL has to prove that they can run this company. Their shares will take a major beating when people used to 100% gains per quarter will get a breathless dose of 10% per year. Investors who bought the Lamborghini got the station wagon. How many rats will jump that ship? AOL has painted themselves into a corner on open access. If they open their pipes, ATHM and all the others rush in to compete. Now try to sell their TWX play to the investors. Or, they show themselves for the hypocrites they are and maintain a closed shop. Then why should T or anyone else open up to them? When earnings come out we will see whether this was a strategic move or a desperation move. It is my opinion that narrowband competition was nailing AOL to the wall and they had no viable broadband option, hence TWX. Lastly, how many computers will be configured with cable modems now? This may not be such a bad thing for ATHM.