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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (73423)	1/13/2000 12:41:00 AM
From: sammaster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

how do u think intel will make the numbers this quarter?...or maybe beat them the way the street has run up the price... ive been told of a pc buying spending freezes right before y2k in december... also amd chips selling better... hoping for a pop at the open so i can buy my feb 85 puts at the current bid.... buy the rumor sell the news....see yhoo sell the news....see LU market seems to be in selling mood right now... :) samir

To: Earlie who wrote (73423)	1/13/2000 1:37:00 AM
From: Fred Fahmy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

To Earlie from Anti-Earlie: <- In every independent test that I have read where Intel's latest micros have been run side-by-side in competition with AMD's Athlon, the latter kicked the former's backside but good.> You need to read more tests. Intel is doing just fine. Some AMD products are equal or better in some test/applications but Intel's are better in others. Intel is still ahead in many broader categories like notebook cpu's and multi-processor server applications (the future). < - Friends within Intel's engineering ranks have frankly admitted to me that the current round of shrink under development is going to be "it" for a considerable time to come.> You know I'd be lying if I said that was the first time I heard that <g>. I know other Intel engineers who are much more optimistic. <- Intel's credibility among the box makers took a real pounding this past Fall when the long overdue Rambus chip sets were finally delivered,...... and didn't work properly. > Intel lost a lot of credibility during the original pentium bug also. What's the point?? All companies, especially in the high tech industry, have set backs. Intel has had a few this year <g>. They have also announced some products early. The box makers will get over it. <- Most of the more knowledgeable types out in the field believe that Intel extruded an egg with their backing of Rambus......> Rambus may turn out to be a mistake. We'll have to wait and see. Mistakes will be made, recovering from them (like from Celeron 1) is important. <It sure has been expensive for Intel to try to bribe the memory gang into participating in Rambus. The only return possible on that big "investment" relates to the sale of RMBS stock.> Didn't they pick up some MU shares on the cheap <g>. <- Perhaps it is the fact that at my age, the memory gets hazy, but I can't remember the last true innovation to come out of Intel,.... and I've followed the company for a fair amount of time.> You should do a patent search on Intel. <- No matter how one cuts it, the simple reality is that INTC USED TO BE a decent growth company (annual revenues rose routinely well up in double digit territory,> But 1999 revenues are up in the low to medium double digits despite what you and others have painted as a terrible, hide the children, take no prisoners, nightmare environment for the PC industry. How can revenue be up 14% from last year given the horror that surrounds us <g>?? <Over the last few years, Intel's growth rate has stagnated dramatically and the company has resorted to accounting chicanery and the truly insane practice of buying back its own stock to artificially maintain a semblance of reasonable earnings. Wondrously, the company's PE has gone ballistic even as the growth stagnated. Mania perhaps?> The 5 year CGR EPS for Intel is about 28%. The 98 to 99 EPS growth will be in the low 30%'s. Margins have been tremendous despite predictions for several quarters/years that they would come down and sharply. < - A short while ago, Intel was a monopoly. Today, it is not,.... in fact it is involved in a vicious price war which it is definitely NOT winning. It has been reduced to battling solely on price since its main competitor has surged ahead on technical merit. Hard to fathom the PE bulge, except in mania terms.> Not winning?? Have you studied AMD's balance sheet? AMD is not a factor. When the industry is doing well, AMD does well (i.e. they turn a profit profitable). At the same time Intel does very well. When things slow down, AMD goes deeply red and Intel earns a few hundred million less. AMD is good for the consumers and Intel. They keep the pressure on and provide just enough cover to keep them safe from Uncle Sam. <its main competitor has surged ahead on technical merit.> This exaggeration made me chuckle. O..k....that's enough..you wore me out. A quick list of a few of my +'s for INTC: 1) Intel's underlying growth is tied directly to the growth of the global technology revolution. IMO, this has barely even started, especially outside the US. Intel's products are at the very heart of this revolution and they have an extremely impressive roadmap of products coming over the next few years. 2) Bandwidth will be increasing over the next several years. As bandwidth improves so will the desire for better, more powerful cpu's. Intel will benefit directly (CPU sales) and indirectly through their expansion into the networking business. 3) Intel is positioning themselves to dominate the server space (and possibly the mini-computer space) going forward in the same way they have the desktop for so many years. This represents a large incremental opportunity previously dominated by others. 4) Many think the net is a fad. I think it is going to become a way of life and the resources to maintain it are going to go up exponentially. A lot of this equipment is going to be Intel Inside. 5) Asian demand is going to become significant and represents a large long term incremental opportunity. 6) Intel's manufacturing prowess is second to none in the semi industry. I love having that on my side <g>. That has helped keep margins sinfully high. Going forward, I would expect that eventually revenue growth will be accelerated at the expense of margins and they continue to expand into other complementary businesses. Margin dollars, not percentage, is the ultimate goal. 7) Notebook growth rates continue to outpace their desktop counterparts significantly. Intel dominates this high margin segment. 8) Intel ROE=29.2%, ROA=21.9%, and billions and billions in cash to fund future growth opportunities. Finally, in July you said you didn't share your enthusiasm for my year end prediction of $80. Looks like I was low by almost $2. My prediction for YE 2000 is $115 give or take a few. Any predictions from you? Good luck, FF

To: Earlie who wrote (73423)	1/13/2000 7:07:00 AM
From: Giordano Bruno	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Ready and willing... -g- In today's slice of the mania... Someone pointed out to me that the stock of a little company called NetJ.com in the last five days has gone from about 11/4 to 3 and has a market cap of about $20 million. What was most hilarious was the description of the company as it reads on Bloomberg: "NetJ.com Corp. currently has no business operations. The company is seeking to acquire or merge with a business or company." THE RAP

To: Earlie who wrote (73423)	1/13/2000 8:57:00 AM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, re: INTC I think a key indicator in the earnings report will be the breakout of the "Intel Architecture Business Group" and the "All Other" category. The Intel Architecture Business Group includes microprocessors, motherboards, other board-level products, chipsets, and graphics chips. I think growth in the IABG category indicates the health of the PC segment. (Interesting that this group was flat YOY Q3). Among other things, the "All Other" category includes the Computing Enhancement Group, the Communications Products Group, the Network Communications Group and the New Business Group. The Flash memory business is included in the Computing Enhancement Group. Consumer demand for flash in '99 was very healthy, and both Intel and AMD are expected to have strong revenues/earnings in that product. (Back in June In-Stat predicted 30% unit growth with rising ASP's through '99). Gene