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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wolff who wrote (18569)	1/13/2000 8:26:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Wolff, before I comment on the hypothetical scenario you present on INTC, let me first congratulate you for your clear train of thought and your ability to put into words the thought or vision you had. Contrary to what the scientific community may say, these are the building blocks to predicting the future. Even one of the most brilliant analytical minds of our time, Einstein, made his finest discoveries using his intuitive mind. . . waking up with visions which explained his theories. And finally, congrats on having the courage of your convictions . . . enough to state the unpopular view. It would have helped to have stated your current overall market position. . so that the bias could be considered by the reader. I know you generally play on the short side, so we will leave it at that. As for your scenario, for the long. . .it is a dreadful thought, but one that must be considered. Your scenario relies on several items of bad news coming in all at once. If Greenspackle warns of pending interest rate hikes AND Intel misses .63 cents and warns about future earnings being down more than 8%. . . then we could see some melt down. But without Greenspeace, any Intel sell-off could be contained and considered an isolated event. And my money is always on Greenspinach. Here's why. Yes, he coined "irrational exuberance", but in retrospect, I believe he regretted that statement. He does not wish to have such an impact on the markets. That is why he has not made strong statements one way or the other since that "blunder" over a year ago. He is careful not to influence the markets in speeches. He leaves all powers of influence to the official word of the FED. So I believe we will trade sideways on fairly low volume during the Greenspeak. And the markets will not react one way or another. As for INTC, we know they will warn. . .it is the first quarter and chip sales are generally slow. There are no whisper numbers to INTC. .63 is the only estimate. So they either beat it meet it or bust it. LU, AOL and TWX all sold off dramatically, yet it hasn't changed many investors views on any of those companies. I do, however, agree with you that the chip makers will become as out of favor as the box makers, the first time that Intel truly disappoints. DELL was never given a second chance. It went from Wall Street darling to boring box maker in a single report. Intel could do the same. . .but it would drag AMD down with it, just as DELL dragged CPQ. Yes, AMD has taken a huge chunk of market share. . .Compaq did the same with DELL when it became the worlds largest. . . but the markets are not fair, nor do they run on strictly numbers. It is primarily a beauty contest. There are favorites and hopefuls. And politics play a major role in the future of many companies. AMD has always been in that sort of shadow that was carved to perfection by Iomega. With the light being so strong from Intel, all that has ever been left for AMD were shadows. I doubt AMD will ever enjoy the spotlight of being the leader of a sexy sector. One more thing. Intel has been spreading out of late. . .making equity investments and partnering up with applications companies. These loyalties will serve them well into the future and whatever the future may bring. . .specifically in 3D, graphics, games, music and video. Speaking of which, I do agree with you on the game console becoming the standard over the PC. Especially with the Playstation II, which will be released in just a few months and is based on the DVD. [We leapfrogged the Dreamcast in favor of the Playstation II] The truly serious gamers will keep their PCs turned on, but will be running Linux, not Windows. . . and will have super-turbo-powered video boards that get them all the WOW they can handle. So, your scenario is certainly possible. But in my opinion, the planets would all have to be in alignment for it to come down as you paint it. I know you would never hope for a true bear market, since nobody makes money . . long or short. . .during such a market. Volume is needed to make money in either direction. And the two most identifying features of a bear market are very low volume and nobody making money. As much as I hate the recent volatility. . .I would prefer it over a bear market any day. I am still under the belief that if the markets could trade freely, we would be moving upward right now. But I feel the largest brokerage houses have committed to some preset bottom trigger point, where they will pile load all that sidelined money of their best investors. . . so until that point is reached they have placed a lid on the market and are manipulating it downward. Just look at some popular stocks that traded up in after hours then open for pre-market down 7 points before trading begins, while all the futures markets are considerably higher. . . explain that one to me. Meanwhile, the individual investor is being squeezed out of the markets, by the depressing media and declining high-techs that individual investors hold so heavily. And when we finally scream "Uncle!", and sell all our babies then the markets will turn on a dime. . . .leaving the individual investors sitting there holding their sell confirmations. So let's hope for everyone's sake that your vision of meltdown was just a nightmare caused by some bad food. Thanks Wolff. . .for sharing your views, which are always welcome here. Rande Is