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To: Didi who wrote (61966)1/13/2000 9:57:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 152472
 
Fed has two agendas:
1. making treasury yields attractive enough to compete against stocks
2. hoisting back the reins on the stock market valuations

the 1st is openly discussed and within their charter
the 2nd is rarely discussed and outside their charter

corporate bond yields are rising, as they must also compete against govt securities (bonds, bills, notes)
in recent months, the spread between treasurys and corporates has dealt upward pressure on bond yields
such is life competing against the stock market for money

the secret to Greenspan's brilliance is extremely paradoxical
he follows the shortend of the credit market, and does NOT dictate to it or attempt to lead it
right now, the shortend is rising in yield
Greenspan will raise rates to match the free credit market
the free credit market has raised rates for the above reasons

the "wealth effect" is real with stocks and has created wealth available for spending
heck, I plan to spend in a miserly way
gotta shake loose the shackles of my lower middle class roots
those parental Depression Era teachings are more imprinted than I admit
but for God's Sake, let the market do what it wishes
people will manage their own money and not spend uncontrollably
so what if yachts and BMW's experience untoward strong demand ???

no inflation with CPI today, again (broken record, not the issue)

bonds will NOT be drawing money away from stocks (the real issue)
meanwhile, bond yields will relax a bit, thus helping stocks

to the Stock Wagon Train, I must say:
NORTHWARD WHOA!!!

let's hope some of that strong earnings honey leaks out before Jan options expiration on Jan21st

26 + 7 = 1
/ Jim Willie