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To: w molloy who wrote (5160)	1/13/2000 12:35:00 PM
From: arun gera	Respond to of 13582

Eudora's Advertizing Revenues - Rough Calculations I am trying to come up with a rough estimate of the impact of Eudora going commercial. Drawing from the comparison with AOL and Yahoo, I am attempting to arrive at some revenue numbers. AOL has about 20 million users and makes about $350 million/qtr from ads/ecommisions etc. That comes to about $6/customer/month. Eudora has about 15 million users. Let us say about 5 million users of Eudora shift/join the ad-supported Eudora. Let us assume Eudora makes $3/customer/month (half of what AOL makes). The annual revenue based on 5 million Eudora users is therefore 5*36M=$180 million/yr. With margins of 60 percent, the bottom line could amount to about $100 million/yr. The above assumptions are fairly conservative. Let us now use the Yahoo numbers. Yahoo averaged 650 million hits per month or about 2 billion hits for the last quarter. Last qtr revenues were about $200 million. So revenue/hit amounted to about $0.10. Let us say that Eudora makes $0.02 per hit.(Ad rates for print media are typically $20/1000 impressions or $0.02/impression.) And each user sees about 10 ads a day. That is a revenue of $0.2/customer/day. Annually per user revenue amounts to $73. 5 million customers implies $365 million/year. Margin of 60 percent implies $220 million to the operating margin. One can easily imagine bigger numbers for commercial subscribers... Arun