To: Bob C. who wrote (37573 ) 1/13/2000 4:37:00 PM From: Rob S. Respond to of 41369
I don't follow the whisper numbers but would think that expectations in general have been lowered so that a focus on some of the more esoteric metrics, such as page hits and subscribers, (I know that in AOL's case that does equate to revenue), might help lift the stock. Frankly, I think a lot of the Internet hype is bloated. But that has never stopped these stocks from soaring out of control in the past! AOL (a bloated darling Internet leader) and Time Warner (traditional broadcast type media empire) need each other because they each have capabilities and mass that would be difficult or impossible to assemble individually in a timely fashion if at all. The quandary is that internet valuations are judged on growth and fundamentals play a proxy role as a peg for expectations while traditional media companies face the judgment of profitability, net worth, debt ratios, efficiency of capital and other trivial things. So what is battling out here is between what context of valuation the market fixes on the new entity on one side and how well the marriage is likely to work on the other. I see a lot of synergies between the two companies and a general esprit de corps among the CEOs that could translate into success. There are a lot of creative possibilities but a so many of them would be foolish to define as the industry these guys will mold is still in the liquid state. As an EE engineer, I think the digital world has just started. While we tend to concentrate on what will physically shape this "thing", what is more dynamic is how the new "media" will enable a massive growth in cooperation and human mental expression. So, my guess is the move is bold but if carried out with enthusiasm and creativity it could be very useful. Personally I don't find AOL's browser to my liking since I ditched it several years ago. I campaign for open internet standards for such things as user profile information that can be used to guide site preference selection and ecommerce and am strongly apposed to this being gobbled up or controlled by any company, group of companies or government body of any type or nationality. The Internet will reach it's most pervasive and greatest potential if it is allowed to develop openly along common interface standards controlled by the user IMO! (Write or visit your congressman and W3C committee: Give 'em all hell! - power to the people, right on!).