To: Larry Kagan who wrote (695 ) 1/20/2000 8:47:00 AM From: Allegoria Respond to of 1045
Cable-Equipment Firms Stand To Benefit From Expanding Cable Services Dow Jones Newswires NEW YORK -- Cable-equipment manufacturers are having some of their best quarters in recent memory, as cable service providers continue to reinforce their fiber-optic networks in preparation for cable telephone service and video-on-demand features. Scientific-Atlanta Inc. (SFA) , Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) and Amphenol Corp. (APH) are all expected to post their highest per-share earnings in at least four years, while CommScope Inc. (CTV) will approach an earnings-per-share high set last quarter. All are expected to meet or exceed Wall Street's expectations for the quarter ended Dec. 31. Ortel Inc. (ORTL) is also poised to post strong fourth-quarter results, while Antec Corp. (ANTC) is one of the few cable-equipment companies that has revised earnings estimates downward. "It's safe to say the industry is stronger than it's ever been," said Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Timothy Long. "Generally speaking, we're expecting the momentum to continue." The cable industry has seen a massive transformation in the last part of the decade. Just a few years ago, cable giant TCI -- now part of the AT&T Corp. (T) cable empire -- told equipment makers it would stop spending on new products. Now, with AT&T spending billions to transmit broadband content over its cable lines, the sky seems the limit. Analysts said last week's megamerger announcement by America Online Inc. (AOL) and Time Warner Inc. (TWX) further strengthened the outlook for the cable-equipment industry. "The merger announcements we've seen definitely validate the cable sector," Long said. "There will be more and more traffic carried by cable infrastructure." AT&T, with 13 million cable subscribers, and Time Warner, with 11 million cable subscribers, will again lead the buying spree. But all cable-service providers are expected to step up their purchasing of equipment to expand their networks as a result of better-than-expected penetration from their digital service offerings. Cable-service providers "only need a 10% penetration rate to break even," said Wachovia Securities Inc. analyst George Hunt. "They're ahead of that, and that's great news for the cable-equipment makers." Scientific-Atlanta -- the largest independent digital set-top box maker now that Motorola Inc.'s (MOT) purchase of General Instrument Corp. has closed -- is expected to record revenue of $360 million in its fiscal second quarter ended Dec. 31, compared with almost $311 million a year ago. About $155 million of that will come from transmission equipment sales, with an additional $92 million from digital set-top box sales. The mean estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by First Call/Thomson Financial is for the Atlanta-based company to post earnings of 33 cents a diluted share. In the same quarter last year, the company reported earnings of 16 cents a share. "Right now, Scientific-Atlanta has 85 networks commercially deployed, up from eight in 1998," said Hunt, adding that he anticipates strong transmission sales from both Scientific-Atlanta and General Instrument. CommScope, which accounts for 65% of the coaxial cable market, is expected to record earnings of 36 cents a share on revenue of $198 million, compared with 22 cents on roughly $146 million in revenue a year ago. "They tell me they have all the business they can handle," Hunt said. "I wouldn't be surprised if they beat the numbers." Analysts expect digital and fiber-optic systems maker Harmonic to post fully taxed earnings of 23 cents per share on revenue of $57.5 million, compared with three cents a share on $27.1 million in the year-ago period. The company's products aid in two-way communication between a cable customer's home and the cable company's central office. Analysts believe Amphenol, a Wallingford, Conn.-based maker of fiber-optic connectors, will post earnings of 70 cents a share, up from 46 cents a share on revenue of $223 million last year. Ortel, of Alhambra, Calif. is expected to post earnings of four cents a share in its fiscal third quarter, up from a loss of nine cents a share on revenue of $16.9 million last year. Meanwhile, Rolling Meadows, Ill.-based cable equipment supplier Antec said in December it wouldn't meet analyst' estimates of about 31 cents per share for the fourth quarter. Because of greater research and development costs, the company said it would miss the mark by 10 cents to 15 cents a share. The mean estimate of nine analysts surveyed by First Call/Thomson Financial now puts Antec's earnings at 16 cents a share, compared with five cents a share last year. Hunt expects the company's revenue to rise to $260 million from $132 million a year ago, adding the missed earnings expectations were because of lower-than-expected margins.