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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: N who wrote (30452)	1/14/2000 4:35:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

<<"Indeed, our goal, in responding to the complexity of current economic forces, is to extend the expansion by containing its imbalances and avoiding the very recession that would complete a business cycle." >> Nancy..So any policy of tightening by Fed is aimed at continuation of this growth, as such a severe dip even if after a 100 basis point increase over three months will only be a chance to get in at half price. If they can avoid recession or hard landing they would avoid a bear market. That is a good sign the consciousness of Fed to see that we avoid recession the route of all evils. Market sell off are the best thing about this market its ability to take no prisoner, look at SBUX got hammered once growth was in question last summer, BMCS quoted in Forbes (10th Jan 00) as the best software company amongst the 500 top but crucified, T still languishing, LU cut to size. It is all about continuing good times in a non-inflationary environment, extensive corporate profit growth, increased productivity and global lock of US corporates. They reach out, US corporation encatchment area is the entire prosperous world and the pockets of prosperity where ever they exist. Corrections will be sharp as strong economic numbers comes in but so would be the potential of climb once corporate profits show huge improvement. If this was a suspect cycle of economic typical boom and bust phenomenon, we should have not seen it continued for so long. Last night, I was reading a post in 97 where SOX was predicted to be at 90 and forecasts of Y2K issues inundating the markets in 00. Best lesson from recent history is the no one ever learns anything from it, bulls or bears, the arguments raised on INTC thread last night that INTC 397$ are made by markets ignore the fact that out of 8 billion $ holdings they could have made much more. Overall shape of numbers of INTC indicate that bottom line would not suffer if this profit is out, although it looks set for 120$ target, but if it ever gets back to 75 it is worth a buy The biggest impact of any correction would be on the asset side of the balance sheet. Companies like INTC are exposed to the New World but they are not thriving on market profits to make the numbers. They need not, if a company says that it cleared out its inventories and its cost cutting program is doing great and growth looks good in the future, I would any day be invested in such a company, unfortunately investing is about these broad lines and not nay-saying. In 97, similar arguments about sustainability of MSFT earnings, MU high P/E, INTC, and ALTR. forthcoming disasters were all predicted as SOX hits 10 times the levels predicted now, I can only say that market has climbed the wall of worry, it will continue to do so albeit with pauses and reluctance. Of-course it is always good to note that if major supports like 1382 are out one needs to play the correction to the last support, however we cannot keep worrying about the disaster when markets are doing great. Realistic vision is the most important tool that we have been bestowed it, in markets we try to be as realistic as possible sometime we do find out that our understanding of most of the forces is limited. In my opinion the dynamics and fluidity of the markets demands that our thoughts have to be subservient to the trend. The major problem I see is superimposition of 'our wisdom' over conventional market wisdom. That what history teaches us..